Reuters reported that police raids on Jair Bolsonaro and associates, accused of planning a coup after the 2022 election, have weakened the right-wing opposition to President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva ahead of October's local elections, according to analysts.
Bolsonaro, a far-right leader who emulated former U.S. President Donald Trump, surrendered his passport to the police last Thursday, leading to the arrest of four of his former aides. Search warrants were issued for four ex-ministers, including three retired army generals.
Analysts argue that this has delivered a significant setback to Bolsonaro's right-wing Liberal Party (PL), the largest opposition party. The president of PL, Valdemar Costa Neto, was arrested on an unrelated gun charge last Thursday and provisionally released on Saturday.
"The Bolsonaro opposition has been badly hurt by this," said Andre Cesar, an analyst at Hold Assessoria Legislativa, a public policy consultancy. "The PL will lose political muscle and have to rethink plans to triple its mayors in the October elections."
Bolsonaro is accused by Brazilian police of altering a decree to reverse his 2022 election loss to Lula, pressuring military leaders for a coup, and plotting to arrest a Supreme Court justice.
PL President Costa Neto is banking on Bolsonaro's popularity among core supporters to drive up voter participation for his party in the October elections for mayors and councils in 5,568 municipal districts throughout Brazil.
How Does This Potentially Affect Elections?
Allegations of Bolsonaro's involvement in a coup conspiracy could weaken support from moderate center-right Brazilians who, despite not being Bolsonaro supporters, voted for him as an opposition to Lula, as per Quaest polling firm.
According to Reuters, a social media survey conducted on Friday by Quaest showed 58% of the postings were critical of Bolsonaro, while 42% were favorable, indicating that he still has considerable support despite allegations of planning a coup, though less than the 49.1% who voted for him against 50.9% for Lula in 2022.
"There will be a huge drain on the PL that will benefit the Workers Party," said a former PL lawmaker who left the party last year and asked to remain anonymous.
