Donald Trump Wins Michigan Republican Primary, Setting Up Last Stand for Nikki Haley in Super Tuesday Contests Next Week

Former President Donald Trump has secured victory in Michigan's Republican primary.

The win adds to Trump's strong performance in this year's presidential primaries and caucuses, even with the ongoing campaign of former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley.

Trump Wins Michigan Republican Primary

Michigan features a two-part nominating contest for the GOP. Out of the state's 55 delegates to the Republican National Convention, only 16 will be determined by Tuesday's primary outcomes. The final delegates will be determined at a state party convention on Saturday, according to NBC News.

Michigan was called for Trump by The Associated Press at 9:00 p.m. EST, just as the final polls closed. The AP also announced President Joe Biden as the winner on the Democratic side.

Meanwhile, with a combination of voters and party insiders involved in the convention process, polling on the GOP race has been scarce. The impact of Trump in the state continues to be significant. He played a significant role in the 2022 midterms, supporting a group of statewide candidates who won their primaries with his assistance - but unfortunately, all of them were defeated in the general election.

At a rally in Waterford Township on February 17, Trump focused on a November rematch with President Joe Biden, largely overlooking the upcoming primary contest. Haley made campaign stops on Sunday in the Detroit suburb of Troy and on Monday in Grand Rapids.

Having not won any primary or caucus leading up to Tuesday, including in her home state of South Carolina, Haley has shifted her focus to what she perceives as Trump's inability to win in the upcoming election. Michigan, which saw a close race in 2016 with Trump and in 2020 with Biden, is anticipated to be a highly contested electoral battleground this fall.

For her part, Haley has promised to continue pushing forward through Super Tuesday. However, she has adamantly declined to commit to anything further than that. When questioned on Friday about her commitment to campaign until the last person votes, Haley clarified that she was only referring to the last person in South Carolina, which had its primary on Saturday.

Another indication that Haley's bid may not be sustainable long-term is the decision by Americans for Prosperity Action, a conservative group established by the billionaire Koch brothers, to stop funding her campaign.

Up to this point, Haley has been able to concentrate on one state at a time. She invested significantly in New Hampshire and South Carolina, coming in second in both with 43% and 40% of the vote, respectively - largely thanks to her strong backing from independent voters, who could take part in those states' open primaries.

However, Haley has only secured 20 delegates up to this point, while Trump has won over five times. In South Carolina, Trump won 47 delegates compared to Haley's 3. Registered Republicans who strongly support the former president tend to dominate open primary contests, and the winner-take-all rules ensure that the first-place finisher receives most of the available delegates.

South Carolina, Haley's home state, could have been a standout moment. As per Politico, Haley has already organized rallies (or will soon) in the upcoming states of North Carolina, Virginia, Minnesota, Colorado, Utah, and Massachusetts, with her campaign planning to reveal more events this week.

Haley is on track to organize a minimum of 10 fundraisers in the 10 days leading up to Super Tuesday. The team is particularly concentrated on states with open primaries and histories of backing more moderate Republicans.

However, they are aware that the chances of an upset are decreasing, as Haley's campaign manager informed the press on Friday. In Vermont, Maine, and Virginia, recent polls indicate that Haley is behind Trump by significant margins: 30 points, 58 points, and 59 points, respectively.

Biden-Trump Potential Rematch

According to AP News, Michigan's primary may pose significant political challenges for Biden and Trump as they move closer to securing their presidential nominations.

Trump, despite his strong performance in the Republican contests this year, is up against a group of GOP voters who are firmly supporting Haley and who have doubts about the former president's chances in a rematch against Biden.

Regarding the current president, Biden is facing a significant challenge in the form of a motivated group of disappointed voters who are unhappy with his approach to the conflict in Gaza and his close ties with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

These dynamics will face a significant challenge in Michigan, the final major primary state before Super Tuesday and a crucial swing state in November's general election. Even if they achieve strong wins as anticipated on Tuesday, both campaigns will be closely examining the margins for any indications of vulnerability in a state that favored Biden by only 3 percentage points in the previous election.

In a recent Michigan radio interview, Biden mentioned that the state would play a crucial role in determining the winner in November. Michigan boasts the highest concentration of Arab Americans in the country. Over 310,000 residents have roots in the Middle East or North Africa. Approximately half of Dearborn's population of around 110,000 residents have Arab heritage.

This location has emerged as a focal point for Democratic frustration with the White House's handling of the Israel-Hamas conflict, which has been ongoing for almost five months since Hamas' attack and abduction of over 200 hostages on October 7.

Israel has launched attacks on many parts of Gaza in retaliation, resulting in the deaths of almost 30,000 individuals, with a majority being women and children, as per Palestinian reports.

Democrats are upset with Biden for backing Israel's offensive and not agreeing to a cease-fire. They are urging voters to choose "uncommitted" instead.

The initiative, which started recently, has received support from figures like Democratic Rep. Rashida Tlaib, the first Palestinian-American woman in Congress, and former Rep. Andy Levin, who was defeated in a Democratic primary two years ago following significant spending by pro-Israel groups.