A recent study by the National University of Singapore showed that Singapore's economic losses due to heat stress could nearly double to $1.7 billion in 2035 from pre-pandemic 2018 due to a decline in labor productivity.
The average productivity of Singapore's four main economic sectors, services, manufacturing, construction, and agriculture, dropped by 11.3% in 2018 due to heat strain. It is also expected to get worse.
Singapore to Lose $1.7 Billion in 2035 Due to Heat Stress
According to the NUS Project HeatSafe research, productivity declines are predicted to reach 14% in 2035, resulting in an economic loss of $1.64 billion after adjusting for inflation.
Workers exposed to adverse environmental factors like the sun or other heat sources like machinery will suffer a much larger loss.
"It is estimated that for every hot day, the reduced workers' productivity during working hours (i.e., presenteeism) translates into a median income loss of S$21 per worker."
Project HeatSafe is the first extensive research in Singapore and the surrounding area to evaluate the effects of increasing temperatures on health and productivity at the macroeconomic and individual levels.
Singapore's fertility rate has decreased from 1.8 children per couple in 1980 to less than one child per couple in 2023, and heat stress is a major risk factor for this decline. According to the study, heat stress also reduced men's sperm concentration and count, influencing the mobility and quality of sperm cells.
Project HeatSafe collaborator Natalia Borzino from the Singapore-ETH Centre said 2018 was chosen as the baseline for the study as it was pre-pandemic and the last "normal year" for which the team had data.
The island nation is warming twice as quickly as the rest of the world, and its UV index just reached the highest band in Singapore's solar UV radiation gauge "extreme" for the second time within four days.
The most recent update indicates a "moderate" level as of Wednesday.
It is not just Southeast Asian countries dealing with this extreme heat.
Scientists issued a warning earlier in February, stating that global warming had exceeded a significant threshold over a full year for the first time. The globe has entered "an era of global boiling," as United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres warned last July.
The NUS study discovered that excessive heat exposure affects not only physical effort and cognitive function but also Singapore's reproductive rate, which is already at all-time lows.
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Researchers Recommend Measures
Researchers advised men to counter the effects of heat on the body and overall fertility by dressing loosely and avoiding heated baths and showers.
The study is conducted amid ongoing discussion over how Singapore's changing land use affects urban heating. Over the next 10 to 15 years, urbanization may cause Singapore to lose its forests, which comprise 10% of its land area and can be up to 4°C colder than high-density urban areas.
'One Million Trees,' a government tree-planting program, aims to plant one million trees in Singapore by 2030. According to the government, this will help to lessen the impact of the urban heat island.
NUS researchers suggested regular rest periods and ice cream intake as preventative measures against hazardous heat levels for outdoor laborers.
