Even after a month spent in a Manhattan courtroom, facing multiple felony charges, former President Donald Trump is still leading his successor President Joe Biden in several critical swing states, according to a new Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll.
Trump leads Biden in Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Biden is leading in Michigan, while the two are tied in Nevada. Third-party candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr's influence on the polls appears to be waning - with support for his candidacy decreasing in every swing state, according to Morning Consult.
While these polling results might be alarming to the Biden-Harris campaign, some experts have urged the public to stop paying close attention to polls months before the election is held. Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton led Trump in the polls the majority of the 2016 election cycle and then suffered one of the most dramatic losses in recent history. In 2020, the polls accurately predicted Biden's win but were wrong about a litany of down-ballot races.
People who answer polls are also not representative of the average voter - they tend to be more politically engaged and have higher social trust levels, according to pollster David Shor.
"For three cycles in a row, there's been this consistent pattern of pollsters overestimating Democratic support in some states and underestimating support in other states. This has been pretty consistent. It happened in 2018. It happened in 2020," Shor told Vox after the 2020 election.
"And the reason that's happening is because the way that [pollsters] are doing polling right now just doesn't work."
While Trump is leading Biden in the polls, the majority of swing state voters still view the former president in an unfavorable light. Just 29% of voters said they viewed him very favorably, while 16% said they had a somewhat favorable view. A plurality of voters - 44% - said they viewed Trump very unfavorably.
A slightly higher number of voters said they viewed Biden favorably - with 22% saying they viewed him very favorably and 20% saying they had a somewhat favorable of the president. Like Trump, however, a plurality of voters said they viewed Biden very unfavorably.
When asked what issues were most important to them, voters cited the economy, immigration and democracy as their top concerns.
