If Mark Sanford's attempt at political redemption ends up falling short when all of the votes are counted tonight the Republican will not run for office again, according to the Associated Press.
The former governor from South Carolina has been engaged in an unusually intriguing special election against Elizabeth Colbert Busch for the congressional seat he had held years ago.
Once thought to be a rising star within the Republican Party and potential presidential candidate, all of that went awry when Sanford admitted that he had lied to his staff about hiking on the Appalachian Trail when he had actually been in Argentina visiting a mistress.
The governor resigned and stayed out of the spotlight for a while. This election is his first attempt at regaining public office.
The First Congressional District of South Carolina is normally a heavily Republican district; Romney carried it with 60 percent of the vote in 2012 according to the Washington Post. Yet the numbers leading into the special election have been incredibly close, with Colbert Busch leading a week ago, which seems to indicate that the electorate has yet to forgive Sanford for his indiscretions.
Colbert Busch was able to earn the endorsement of the Charleston Post and Courier, a feat that has not been accomplished by a Democrat for decades according to the Washington Post.
"I feel really, really good," Colbert Busch said. "I'm really very positive. We're seeing a lot of people wanting to come to the middle."
Gibbs Knotts explained to the Associated Press that the key to the election will be voter turnout. Knotts, chairman of the Political Science Department at the College of Charleston, is expecting the turnout to be light, as it often is for special elections.
"It's going to be a close election," Knotts said. "It will depend on turnout. I'm sort of wondering if the moderates are going to hold their noses and vote for Sanford because he ultimately lines up with their policies."
Knotts believes if Sanford wins it is because the demographics of the district are such that a Republican is supposed to win. Knotts also feels that if Colbert Busch wins it will be attributable to Sanford losing more so than Colbert Busch winning.
"It's a referendum on Sanford's past - just too much baggage and the trespassing allegations got him talking about his past when Sanford is best when he is talking about size of government and the budget deficit."
Micah Cohen, a writer for the FiveThirtyEight blog wrote that if Colbert Busch is able to win the election South Carolinians shouldn't get used to her being around for very long.
"No matter the magnitude of the partisan lean, representatives who have won elections in districts that have leaned toward the opposite political party - even if the lean was slight - have had trouble winning re-election," Cohen wrote.
That may be a problem for Colbert Busch but you can be assured it's the kind of problem she would gladly welcome.
