Tree Ring Analysis Predicts Worst Drought to Happen in the West

Scientists have found a way to map out the drought history of a particular place by looking at rings of drought-sensitive tree species.

Utah has historically experienced the worst droughts in the United States - researchers have posited that this could be due to the natural climatic pattern in the area. Using microscopes and sandpapers, scientists from Brigham Young University led by geography professor Matthew Beker analyzed the rings from selected tree species. They were able to map out different scenarios of drought throughout the years: the first one was a 16-year long drought in 1703; second showed a 13 percent drop in the river flow of Weber River in 1580, and the third recalled a very severe drought in 1492.

"We're conservatively estimating the severity of these droughts that hit before the modern record, and we still see some that are kind of scary if they were to happen again," Bekker said in a press release. "We would really have to change the way we do things here."

Current climate records only date back to approximately 100 years ago in this particular part of the United States. This has led scientists to consult nature's surface patterns that may give information on climate conditions of the past.

This study used tree rings samples collected from pinyon pine trees and Douglas firs. Aside from the tree rings, researchers also examined the width of the rings, which can also give clues on how they used available water resource to survive.

The researchers also gathered samples from dead trees along the banks of the Weber Basin. Their research showed a 585-year long history of the droughts that happened in Utah.

Furthermore, they predicted that history is likely to repeat itself in the West, since they are observing fluctuations in the climate conditions ranging from extremely wet to extremely dry.

"We're trying to work with water managers to show the different flavors of droughts this region has had," said Bekker in a press release. "These are scenarios you need to build into your models to know how to plan for the future."

Further details of the study were published in the May 2 issue of Journal of the American Water Resources Association.

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