Melting ice on East Antarctica's shore could cause ice to discharge not the ocean causing sea levels to significantly rise.
A research team looked at computer simulations of Antarctic ice flow to make their findings, a Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact research news release reported. To create this model the researchers used data from the ground profile below the ice sheet.
"East Antarctica's Wilkes Basin is like a bottle on a slant, once uncorked, it empties out," lead-author Matthias Mengel said in the news release.
The Antarctic air is frigid, but the warming water is causing ice to melt down the coast. This melting could cause the "cork" to disappear, triggering a long-term sea-level rise of between 300 and 400 centimeters.
"The full sea-level rise would ultimately be up to 80 times bigger than the initial melting of the ice cork," co-author Anders Levermann said in the news release.
"Until recently, only West Antarctica was considered unstable, but now we know that its ten times bigger counterpart in the East might also be at risk," Levermann, said. "If half of that ice loss occurred in the ice-cork region, then the discharge would begin. We have probably overestimated the stability of East Antarctica so far."
The melting ice would cause the grounding line (when ice from land meets the sea and floats) to retreat. When this occurs the "rim" of ice facing the ocean rises, pushing more ice into the ocean that will eventually melt and cause the sea level to rise. Warming temperatures are accelerating this process.
The computer model determined it will take between five and 10 thousand years for the basin to empty completely, but once started the process will persist even if global warming is reversed.
"This is the underlying issue here," Matthias Mengel said in the news release. "By emitting more and more greenhouse gases we might trigger responses now that we may not be able to stop in the future."
