A new study found that new lung cancer screening guidelines will most likely increase the proportion of early-stage lung cancer diagnoses to 33 percent.
The newly recommended code, released in December of last year by the US Preventive Services Task Force, will likely cost the government around $9.3 billion. It covers people ages 55 to 89 that have a high risk of cancer due to their smoking habits. This means that Medicare will cover a large proportion of patients that would qualify for additional screenings.
"Lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer death in the United States. That's mainly because lung cancers often aren't caught until they are at an advanced stage," said Joshua Roth, head author of the study from the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in Seattle. "If we can periodically look for and detect cancer earlier that allows for potentially curative surgery, and, a much better survival prognosis. The key to the success of this screening program is ensuring that those who are at high risk actually undergo screening and subsequently receive appropriate treatment."
On April 30, the advisory panel of Medicare protested covering the tests that they believe lacks evidence. Medicare is expected to come up with a proposed coverage decision no later than November 2014.
Roth told reporters in a conference call that the panel's vote is based on the lack of data on cost. Roth, together with his colleagues, arrived at this statement by using a three-scenario mathematical model designed to calculate the cost of the screening that would occur during a five-year period, Reuters reported.
The group found that the most likely scenario would assume half of those offered screening would get tested. This would mean that CT scans would increase by 11.2 million more and result in almost 55,000 more lung cancer detection for a period of more than five years, as opposed to the non-screening scheme.
By considering other factors such as imaging costs, diagnostic work-up and care of newly-detected cancers, Medicare would have to shoulder the total cost of $9.3 billion over five years. This means that Medicare will spend $3 more for each member every month.
