Scientists warn about a possible dengue outbreak during the upcoming FIFA World Cup 2014 in Brazil.
Researchers stated that the risk is sufficient enough to issue a high-alert warning in three venues where matches are scheduled - Natal, Fortaleza and Recife.
"Recent concerns about dengue fever in Brazil during the World Cup have made dramatic headlines, but these estimates have been based solely on averages of past dengue cases. The possibility of a large dengue fever outbreak during the World Cup, capable of infecting visitors and spreading dengue back to their country of origin, depends on a combination of many factors, including large numbers of mosquitoes, a susceptible population, and a high rate of mosquito-human contact", lead author Dr Rachel Lowe from the Catalan Institute of Climate Sciences in Barcelona, Spain, said in a press release.
Researchers explained that climate plays an important role in dengue transmission in epidemic-prone areas where temperature and rainfall contribute to both mosquito and virus transmission dynamics. The risk increases just after a heavy rainfall.
Scientists developed an early warning system that covers 553 'micro-regions' in Brazil, bringing the attention of authorities to the risk of dengue fever outbreaks during the World Cup.
"Our aim was to take the available evidence on real-time seasonal rainfall and temperature forecasts, transmission dynamics, and social and environmental variables (e.g., urbanisation), and combine it with the latest in mapping and mathematical modelling to produce robust risk estimates for the 12 host cities where matches will be played", says Dr Lowe.
The research team, however, said that areas such as Brasília, Cuiabá, Curitiba, Porto Alegre, and São Paulo have less chances of the dengue outbreak. But, regions such as Rio de Janeiro, Belo Horizonte, Salvador and Manaus have medium levels of threat of the outbreak.
"The ability to provide early warnings of dengue epidemics at the microregion level, three months in advance, is invaluable for reducing or containing an epidemic and will give local authorities the time to combat mosquito populations in those cities with a greater chance of dengue outbreaks," Dr Lowe said.
The study was published in 'The Lancet Infectious Diseases'.
