Climate change probably won't lead to more days of extreme cold such as those that were seen in the United States this past winter.
The "Arctic amplification phenomenon" is when the Arctic warms more quickly than other regions further south, a University of Exeter news release reported.
This phenomenon has been linked to spike in the number of cold spells in areas such as Europe and North America in the past, but new research suggests arctic amplification has actually reduced the risk of cold extremes.
The study questions the concern that North America and parts of Europe will experience more frequent and extreme cold days over the next century.
"Autumn and winter days are becoming warmer on average, and less variable from day-to-day. Both factors reduce the chance of extremely cold days," University of Exeter expert Doctor James Screen, said in the news release.
Researchers started to believe there was a link between Arctic amplification and extreme weather conditions during the especially severe winter in the United States in January of 2014. The intense weather caused "transport disruption, power cuts and crop damage," the news release reported.
The research suggests autumn and winter temperature variability has decreased over the mid-to-high latitude Northern Hemisphere over recent years. This may be due to northerly winds are warming more rapidly than southerly winds associated with warm days.
"Cold days tend to occur when the wind is blowing from the north, bringing Arctic air south into the mid-latitudes. Because the Arctic air is warming so rapidly these cold days are now less cold than they were in the past," Doctor Screen said.
The researchers made their findings using the latest mathematical model; the model predicted there will be further decreases in temperature variability in all seasons except for summer in the northern hemisphere.
The study, called "Arctic amplification decreases temperature variance in northern mid-to-high-latitudes," was published in the journal Nature Climate Change.
