Researchers at Northeastern University conducted a comprehensive analysis of global temperature through the use of computational tools from big data science. They found that the Earth's current state of affairs with weather and climate might be the norm for the future.
According to their findings, Evan Kodra and Auroop Ganguly of Northeastern University determined that a rise in global temperature will affect the variability in temperature extremes. For example, the rise in the hottest and coldest temperatures each year will contribute to a wider range of high and low temperature extremes. The common misconception is that global warming means the planet is getting hotter, which is true, but it also contributes to extreme wintry temperatures.
Kodra explains that the overall rise in temperature may continue to result in extreme cold snaps, similar to the polar vortex that struck parts of the eastern US. Climate change has not been definitively proven to play a role in polar vortexes, but many climatologists believe its contribution is a serious possibility. The only reason the two haven't been linked is because short-term observations in climate research are still young. But Kodra and Ganguly speculate that ice melt in hotter years could cause cold winters.
"Just because you have a year that's colder than the usual over the last decade isn't a rejection of the global warming hypothesis," said Kodra in this EurekAlert news release. "While virtually all statistics of temperature extremes are projected to increase, Global Climate Models (GCMs) consistently show asymmetry in projected changes of seasonal extrema," the researchers noted.
Kodra and Ganguly received funding from a $10-million multi-university Expeditions in Computing grant and used simulations from the most recent climate models that were developed for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The researchers examined seasonal temperature extrema statistics by region, season, and extrema type on land and over oceans. Although the international community can still potentially reverse these changes by instituting strict climate change policies, Kodra and Ganguly believe their findings will be helpful for the agricultural, public health, and insurance planning sectors who can use the information to better plan for the future.
Their paper, "Asymmetry of projected increases in extreme temperature distributions," was published on Wednesday in the journal Scientific Reports.
