New drug screening could make hepatitis C a "rare disease" by the year 2063.
In the new study, published in the August 5 edition of Annals of Internal Medicine, used a computer simulation to predict the future impact of the disease, the University of Texas M. D. Anderson Cancer Center reported.
"Hepatitis C (HCV) is the leading cause of liver cancer and accounts for more than 15,000 deaths in the U.S. each year," said Jagpreet Chhatwal, Ph.D., assistant professor of Health Services Research at MD Anderson, and corresponding author on the study. "If we can improve access to treatment and incorporate more aggressive screening guidelines, we can reduce the number of chronic HCV cases, prevent more cases of liver cancer and reduce liver-related deaths."
HCV is a virus transmitted through the blood, it often spread through the sharing of needles or unsterilized tattoo and medical equipment. Those at highest risk of the virus are baby boomers born between the years of 1945 and 1965. This demographic accounts for about 75 percent of the estimated 2.7 to 3.9 million people infected in the U.S.
In the recent study the team based their mathematical model on data from 30 clinical trials to predict the impact of new therapies called "direct-acting antivirals" along with improved screening techniques.
The simulation predicted one-time HCV screening of baby boomers would help identify 487,000 cases over the next decade.
"Though impactful, the new screening guideline does not identity the large number of HCV patients who would progress to advanced disease stages without treatment and could die," Chhatwal said.
Overall 933,700 HCV cases could be revealed through advanced testing, leading to timely treatments and a significant reduction in infection.
"Making hepatitis C a rare disease would be a tremendous, life-saving accomplishment," said lead author Mina Kabiri, a doctoral student at the University of Pittsburgh Graduate School of Public Health. "However, to do this, we will need improved access to care and increased treatment capacity, primarily in the form of primary care physicians who can manage the care of infected people identified through increased screening."
