With an agreement reached between the NFL and its union regarding a new drug policy, several suspended players are eligible to return to game action this week. The most notable is slot receiver extraordinaire, Wes Welker.
But what implications does this have for fantasy football? Glad you asked.
For those Welker owners out there, it's fair to be excited he's returning a week early. I just advise you not to get too excited and throw him in the starting lineup just yet. Welker is a great buy-low candidate at the moment, but he will need some time to get his legs under him after being away from the team for several weeks. Plus, the Denver Broncos will be traveling to Seattle to face a Seahawks team that is 16-1 at home under Russell Wilson. The Hawks may have been outdueled by San Diego last week, but that loss and this Super Bowl rematch will only motivate The Legion of Boom even more. Welker is more of a WR3/Flex play at best this week.
Going forward, however, owners should feel safe with Welker in their starting lineups. Welker averaged nearly 8.5 targets a game last season, just a smidge below No. 1 target Demaryius Thomas' 8.9 targets per game. Welker also saw significant goal line opportunities, finishing with 10 touchdowns on the year. While scores are fickle from year-to-year, Welker has a knack for getting open near the end zone in this offense.
His return invariably means a slight decline in production from quick wide out Emmanuel Sanders, who has a hearty 18 targets through two games. Regardless, Peyton Manning dropped back to pass 659 times last season, so this offense is still very much aerial-based. All of the pass catchers in this offense will have their days, but Welker's consistency makes him a strong WR2. Last season, Welker had only four games in which he failed to catch at least five passes.
Bottom line: downgrade Sander, and be patient with Welker as he works himself back into football shape. Your investment will pay off sooner rather than later.
