Natural gas may seem like a viable tool to combat climate change, but new research suggests even an abundance of it would do little to reduce harmful U.S. emissions.
Researchers at UC Irvine, Stanford University and the nonprofit organization Near Zero found inexpensive gas boosts electricity consumption and takes the focus off the expansion of cleaner energy sources like wind and solar.
Coal-fueled plants are currently the nation's largest source of power, but they emit massive amounts of carbon dioxide which is believed to be the main greenhouse gas pollutant in our atmosphere.
The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency recently proposed new rules enforcing a much heavier reliance on natural gas for power, but the researchers' modeling of the effect of this on the national power sector suggests this may not be the best solution.
"In our results, abundant natural gas does not significantly lower greenhouse gas emissions. This is true even if no methane leaks during production and shipping," said lead author Christine Shearer, a postdoctoral scholar in Earth system science at UC Irvine.
Past studies have looked at the risks associated with methane gas leaking into the atmosphere, but this research suggests the overall climate benefits associated with natural gas will be minuscule even if none escapes. The findings predict high gas usage could boost emissions by 5 to 9 percent between 2013 and 2055.
"Natural gas has been presented as a bridge to a low-carbon future, but what we see is that it's actually a major detour. We find that the only effective paths to reducing greenhouse gases are a regulatory cap or a carbon tax," Shearer said.
After performing the modeling and looking at a variety of climate policies the researchers concluded shifting the focus to natural gas is a poor strategy in the fight against climate change.
"Cutting greenhouse gas emissions by burning natural gas is like dieting by eating reduced-fat cookies," said Steven Davis, assistant professor of Earth system science at UC Irvine and the study's principal investigator. "It may be better than eating full-fat cookies, but if you really want to lose weight, you probably need to avoid cookies altogether."
The findings were published Sept. 24 in the journal Environmental Research Letter.
