The Baltimore Orioles and Detroit Tigers may not have had to win a one game playoff to secure their postseason berth, but that doesn't mean they're not wringing their hands in anticipation of their very own American League Division Series matchup.
This one is kinda odd in that the Orioles may have the better starting pitching on paper (3.61 ERA, 1.28 WHIP), but on paper the Tigers pitching (3.89 ERA, 1.27 WHIP) should be better - if that makes sense.
The Tigers have, on paper, probably the best top of the rotation in baseball with Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander and David Price (aka the last three winners of the AL Cy Young).
The Tigers announced that this order is exactly what the Orioles will see to kick off the series. Scherzer is a strikeout machine (252), and has fared very well in his career against most of Baltimore's lineup.
Verlander hasn't been his usual dominant self this season, but managed a respectable 4.54 ERA and has been trending in the right direction the last couple of months.
Price, brought over in trade, has been having the best season of his career. He's got more strikeouts and a lower walk rate than in any other season.
Based on name recognition and past success, the Tigers have the better rotation. But if you go purely on 2014's numbers, the Orioles have the superior group.
Orioles starters Chris Tillman, Miguel Gonzalez, Wei-Yin Chen and Bud Norris went 13-6 with a 2.45 ERA and 1.145 WHIP in September, compared to a 10-9 record with a 3.88 ERA and a 1.330 WHIP for Detroit.
As for the bullpens, that one's not nearly as confusing. The Orioles have a serious advantage.
The Tigers pen is kind of a mess, even after their trade for Joakim Soria, who they haven't even really used much. The Orioles, on the other hand, are third in the league in both ERA (3.10) and WHIP (1.16).
Offensively, both teams have plenty of power, but the advantage goes to the Tigers. The Orioles led the league in homeruns with 211, even after the loss of slugger Chris Davis. They just happen to be running up against a team in Detroit that leads the league in batting average (.277), OPS (.757) and is second in runs scored (757).
Clutch hitting has been an issue for the Tigers all season though.
Defensively, the Orioles have another serious advantage as they finished third in the league in defensive runs saved. The Tigers finished on the opposite end of the spectrum.
This one really seems like it'll come down to starting pitching and run scoring. Depending on whose rotation fares better, the other team's offensive output will suffer or prosper.
Look for there to be a couple of high-scoring games with starters chased early. The Tigers will need to score, and score often, as relying on their defense and bullpen to put games away seems like a recipe for disaster.
