The Washington Post released new data out of their Election Lab Monday, and it shows Republicans taking control of the Senate by an overwhelming majority.
Republicans are given a 94 percent chance to take control of the Senate in November and a 99 percent chance of maintaining control over the House.
Midterm elections will see Republicans gaining seven seats in the Senate, taking them from 45 to 52, according to the Post's forecast. As for the House, the Post predicts Republicans will go from 234 seats to 241.
Among key states to contribute to the Republican Senate takeover are Montana, South Dakota, Colorado, Alaska, Iowa, Arkansas, Louisiana and West Virginia. If the GOP can hold onto three contested seats in Kansas, Kentucky and Georgia, and remove Democrats from six seats, the Senate is very likely to once again turn red.
The Washington Post said the following regarding their model prediction:
"Like most forecasting models, Election Lab uses the past to predict the future. To predict House and Senate elections in 2014, we draw on the elections from 1980-2012. We first look at how well key factors were related to outcomes in those past elections. Then, we gather information about those same factors for 2014. Assuming that these factors will be related to election outcomes in 2014 in the same way they were from 1980 to 2012, we can make a prediction about who will win each race."
The New York Times is also predicting a Republican takeover in the Senate, with the most recent statistical forecast giving the GOP a 64 percent chance of taking back the Senate.
Nate Silver and FiveThirtyEight give Republicans a 57.9 percent chance, and both The Huffington Post and The Daily Kos also predict in favor of the Republicans.
