This morning, I woke up and did what I always do. I hopped in the shower, got dressed, made myself a sandwich for lunch and headed off to work. What I didn't do was check the weather, dress appropriately or pack an umbrella just in case. What'd ya know, the second I stepped outside, it started raining and I stood there looking like a wet idiot.
There's no one to blame except myself. I wasn't prepared because I didn't take the time to do the simple research that would have enabled me to avoid this cold and uncomfortable morning. Believe it or not, fantasy football works in a similar manner.
Doing just a little bit of research and preparation can mean the difference between winning and losing. It can be as simple as reading this column. Prepping beforehand to help you make an informed decision never hurts your chances.
To help you reach fantasy football victory, here are a few players worth starting this week and some to avoid:
Worth It:
QB: Russell Wilson
Captain Obvious here with an important announcement: Russell Wilson is good at football. Three straight games with a rushing touchdown, two 100-plus rushing yard efforts in his last three outings, more passing attempts per game than in any other year in his career. Wilson is a must-start in all fantasy formats. Oh, did I mention that Seattle is playing the Carolina Panthers this week? Gone are the days when Carolina's defense was, you know, good. The Panthers have allowed 419 yards per game over the last four weeks, surrender the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing QBs and Willson & Co. are still trying to prove they don't need Percy Harvin. Fantasy fireworks.
RB: Joique Bell
I said, at the start of the season, that Bell was the Detroit Lions' running back you wanted. It's like choosing Alec Baldwin over his less talented brothers. Bell has outperformed Reggie Bush overall this year. He's coming off two consecutive games with 18 carries and a touchdown in both, and is playing an Atlanta Falcons team that allows the most fantasy points to opposing running backs. The Falcons have given up eight (!) rushing touchdowns during their current four-game losing streak. I would say the chances that Bell finds the endzone in this one are pretty good.
Bonus: Lamar Miller
Lead guy in Miami after Knowshon Moreno went down with an injury. Dolphins are playing a miserable Jaguars defense. Easy money right here.
WR: Malcolm Floyd
Floyd is boom-or-bust, so this is a bit of a risky move here. But the guy does have at least 50 yards or a touchdown grab in each of his last four games. San Diego is playing the Broncos, so I expect a lot of points in this one, and it's not like Denver's pass defense is other-worldly (ranked 18th in the league). Denver has also allowed three passing touchdowns of at least 20 yards in the last four games, which bodes well for Floyd. Could this move backfire? Absolutely. But I have a feeling Floyd gets open deep once or twice in this one.
Bonus: Sammy Watkins
Big game last week. Playing the dreadful New York Jets' secondary this weekend. Let the breakout rookie year continue.
TE: Dwayne Allen
Allen has four double-digit fantasy games this season. When it comes to fantasy football, I love me some consistency. Allen plays on the best offense in the league with an MVP-caliber quarterback. He's nabbed five touchdowns on the year, and is facing a Pittsburgh Steelers' defense that fell down early against Houston on Monday night and allows the ninth most fantasy points to opposing tight ends. Solid top-10 play this week.
Avoid:
QB: Jay Cutler
Cutler is coming off of a terrible outing against the Miami Dolphins last week that reportedly set Brandon Marshall off on him. I'm not so sure that's going to change against the New England Patriots' No. 1 ranked pass defense. The Pats have seven interceptions in seven games this year. Hmm, now which quarterback has been criticized throughout his entire career for costly turnovers? Oh, that's right, JAY CUTLER. Too much dysfunction in Chicago and too tough of a matchup for me to trust Cutler this week.
RB: Alfred Morris
You're most likely going to play him if you have him, but it might not be pretty. Morris has been very disappointing this season, thanks to a turnover at Washington's quarterback position and poor offensive line play. He doesn't have a single 100-yard game this season, and hasn't scored a touchdown since Week 4. Plus, he's been hobbled by an ankle injury suffered last week against the Titans. I guess Less isn't really Morris in this case...(crickets).
WR: Eric Decker
Decker hasn't been terrible this season, but he hasn't been great either. Zero 100-yard games and no contests with more than six catches after six such games last season. Inconsistent play from quarterback Geno Smith hasn't helped Decker's cause. Neither will the addition of Percy Harvin. Less targets for Decker is not what fantasy owners need right now. Take it from ESPN's Trent Dilfer, "Decker will get isolation matchups outside, but that doesn't mean they'll always throw it to him. The Texans on Monday night had lots of outside matchups but chose not to throw it because they were working on other concepts. Amaro is the guy who I think could get some good opportunities as a result of Harvin's arrival -- Decker will be limited to getting a big play here or there."
Bottom line: I'd rather sit through every M. Night Shyamalan movie on a continuous loop than trust Decker.
TE: Martellus Bennett
Bennett started off the season hot, scoring four touchdowns in the first three games. He's cooled off considerably over the last three weeks. Zero touchdowns and no more than 58 yards in any of the three contests. Predicting tight end success outside of the three or four major guys is a total crapshoot. It's like trying to predict which characters will actually survive on "Game of Thrones." The Patriots have only allowed two touchdowns to opposing tight ends all year. I'm down on the Bears' offense this week.
