Part II of our AL Central analysis features the Kansas City Royals and Detroit Tigers. The Royals made it to Game 7 of the World Series after a wildly successful season and the Tigers still remain one of the best teams in baseball despite their early playoff exit. What must these two teams do in the offseason?
KC and Detroit are interesting to compare side-by-side since they were fighting for the division title throughout the 2014 season. We begin with Kansas City.
Kansas City Royals (89-73), 2nd in AL Central
The Royals have a great young core of players, but they will have some tough decisions to make in the offseason. It doesn't help that they just lost Game 7 of the World Series at home to the San Francisco Giants, but the front office will be tasked with a number of pressing issues that need to be solved, some of which are mandatory within the next few days. After all, they're a small market team and they have a lot of players that are due for a pay day either now or in the near future.
For one, they have impending free agents James Shields, Norichika Aoki, Luke Hochevar and likely Billy Butler (who has a team option for $12.5 million). All of these players were an integral part to the team's success this season: Shields was the starting rotation's ace; Aoki was perhaps the team's best contact hitter; Hochevar was an excellent piece in the league's best bullpen and; Butler has been a workhorse throughout his career with the team, with a career batting average of .295 to accompany 127 home runs and 628 RBIs. However, the price for all of these men is something the team likely cannot afford, especially since they have other priorities with Alex Gordon (free agent next season), Eric Hosmer (arbitration eligible), Greg Holland (arbitration eligible), Lorenzo Cain (arbitration eligible), Mike Moustakas (arbitration eligible), Danny Duffy (arbitration eligible) and Kelvin Herrera (arbitration eligible).
But based on their success this season and the fact that they have a talented youthful core, Kansas City will likely bump up their payroll (it was $92 million in 2014 and can possibly jump between $100-$110 million in 2015). It's funny to think that in 2011 the team only had a $36.1 million payroll, which was the lowest in the majors. The times they are a changin'! So let's see what the Royals need to do with their own personnel and need to address in free agency or through the farm system.
Starting pitcher: In my opinion this is their most important need. It was reported during their playoff run that they were preparing a hefty offer for James Shields, but it's believed he will receiver larger offers from other teams such as the Cubs, Yankees, Red Sox and others. Shields has been the ace of the Royals staff since arriving before the 2013 season via a trade with the Rays and he's also been a great leader. He's rarely injured (started at least 31 games per year since 2007) and is an innings-eater (over 203 IP since 2007 as well). If they can't re-sign Shields, which many expect to happen, Kansas City can chase some lower key free-agent pitchers such as Francisco Liriano, Edinson Volquez, Jason Hammel, or even welcome back Ervin Santana. Unfortunately they were hoping for prospect Kyle Zimmer to be ready this season, but he just underwent surgery on his throwing shoulder and the timetable for his return is unknown.
Designated Hitter: This is assuming Billy Butler walks after the team declines his option. Butler has been great for the Royals, but the team cannot afford to be paying a part-time first baseman $12.5 million in a year where they need to address other serious pieces. I would hope (and imagine) that the two sides can come to an agreement on a new deal, but there are other teams out there who would be willing to offer Butler a nice contract to play some first base and serve as the DH. If it doesn't work out with Butler, the free-agent market has a few names that can fill this void for a reasonable price: Michael Cuddyer, Adam LaRoche, Adam Lind, Michael Morse, and Delmon Young, to name a few.
Outfielder: Aoki and Josh Willingham are free agents and it's believed the team may look to trade Alex Gordon because they won't be able to afford him after this season. He's expected to decline his player option at the conclusion of the 2015 season and he'll be 31 years old at that point, which isn't very appealing to a small market team such as Kansas City. It's not in their best interest to offer a multi-year lucrative deal to a 31-year-old, despite his significant contribution to the team. So this leaves Lorenzo Cain hanging out by himself in center field in this worse-case-scenario. Outfielder prospect Jorge Bonifacio could join the team in 2015, but he won't be an immediate solution. Some cool and potentially affordable free agents include Melky Cabrera, Torii Hunter, Alex Rios and Delmon Young.
Detroit Tigers (90-72), 1st in AL Central
Bad news for the Tigers keeps mounting. They were swept in the ALDS by the Orioles and now must deal with a number of looming free agents (and other issues that go beyond 2015). Max Scherzer, Torii Hunter and Victor Martinez are just three free agents they'll have their hands full with. They tried to lock up Scherzer before the season, but the right-hander declined a six-year $144 million extension. Torii Hunter has been great for Detroit and expressed that he wants to return to the team, but many others might be interested in him because of his experience and good leadership. It's no secret Martinez will get a lot of attention after his 2014 campaign (.335 average with 32 home runs and 103 RBIs), but he's 35 years old and Detroit may not want to offer him a big long-term contract, especially with $110 million already on the books for 2015. So assuming these men all depart, which is certainly possible, let's take a look at Detroit's needs this offseason.
Designated Hitter: When the Royals decline Billy Butler's option, the Tigers can make a run at him and he'd fit perfectly. They could also return Delmon Young, but who knows if they want to do that. Michael Cuddyer could be a solid option because he can play right field, first base and DH when needed. Michael Morse or Adam LaRoche wouldn't be bad ideas either. Detroit isn't afraid to spend, but if they're going to hand out long-term contracts, the investment needs to be worth it. All of these guys are older and could command decent money, so they may not be awfully attractive over the long-term.
Outfielder: If they don't return Torii Hunter they have plenty of options. The MLB home run leader Nelson Cruz is a free agent and they can throw him in right field (and also use him as a DH). Cuban defector Yasmany Tomas has reportedly interested the Tigers as well, which could be a strong possibility because they were front-runners to land Rusney Castillo, another Cuban outfielder who signed with the Red Sox in August. However, these two guys are expected to wield big money in long-term contracts. General manager Dave Dombrowski can simply re-sign Hunter for cheaper or promote prospect Steven Moya full-time and save a lot of money.
Starting Pitcher: What?! The Tigers don't need a starting pitcher! Well, you might be right, but hear me out. Verlander seems to be on the decline after his uncharacteristic 2013 and 2014 campaigns. Max Scherzer is a free agent and is no guarantee to return. David Price reportedly has "zero interest" in signing a long-term deal with the team, and he'll be a free agent after 2015. They still have Anibal Sanchez and Rick Porcello, but they can't afford to lose both Scherzer AND Price in consecutive offseasons. I would imagine they're going to do all they can to keep Scherzer, but if not, they can chase Jon Lester or James Shields (who will also cost a ton of money). Francisco Liriano, Edinson Volquez, Ervin Santana, Jason Hammel, Hiroki Kuroda (unlikely) and Chris Young are some other free-agent options who had fairly solid seasons in 2014. Youngsters Robbie Ray, Kyle Lobstein and Buck Farmer could jump into the rotation as well as prospects Jake Thompson and Jonathon Crawford, but they're perhaps going to continue developing in the minors.
Relief Pitcher: Jim Johnson, Joba Chamberlain, Phil Coke, Joel Hanrahan and Kevin Whelan are all free agents. They picked up Joakim Soria's $7 million option, but if they don't re-sign any or all of these guys, they'll need to explore the free-agent market, which includes bigger names such as Luke Gregerson, Luke Hochevar, Neal Cotts, Zach Duke, Tom Gorzelanny, Andrew Miller and others. There are a bunch of notable closers available, but it looks like they're going with Joe Nathan and Soria as their end-of-game options.
