The Philadelphia Phillies slogged their way through another grueling season this past year, tantalizing fans with just enough talent and a smattering of wins before seeing their season sink, weighted down both by expectations their current roster is ill-equipped to meet and the heft of outsized contracts handed to aging veterans whose talents are a sadly marginalized version of what they once were.
The man at the helm of this beleaguered franchise, general manager Ruben Amaro Jr., has thus far escaped serious scrutiny.
But the question facing the team, and Amaro, as they head into an offseason of unfettered uncertainty is how do they fix the mess that currently is the Philadelphia Phillies?
Pat Gillick, former general manager of the expansion Toronto Blue Jays, Orioles, Mariners and Phillies, was brought on recently as a senior advisor and interim team president - ostensibly to help oversee the team's sorely needed transformation.
Rumors have begun to circulate that Gillick and Amaro are open to just about any trade discussion for just about any player. Amaro recently told Ryan Lawrence of the Philadelphia Daily News that it was clear that the makeup of the roster needed to change and that there were no "untouchable" players in the lineup - using the dreaded "R" word to describe the phase into which the Phillies must enter.
"It's clear we have to go into a rebuilding mode," Amaro said, according to Lawrence. "We have to get younger, more athletic . . . That's really the goal. We're keeping our thoughts and eyes open and not leaving anything off the table. We'll talk about any player. There are no untouchables. But we'll keep as many young players as we can."
Closer Jonathan Papelbon, whose 2.04 ERA this past season was his best since 2009, could be extremely attractive to teams based on the outcome of the current impasse facing David Robertson and the New York Yankees, according to Ken Rosenthal of Foxsports.com. The Yanks made a $15.3 million qualifying offer to Robertson, which he has yet to accept or reject.
If Robertson rejects the offer, Papelbon looks more attractive from an affordability standpoint. Should he accept the offer, the decreased supply would increase Papelbon's demand.
Papelbon is due $13 million next season and will exercise his $13 million vesting option for 2016 if he finishes 48 games.
Shortstop Jimmy Rollins, soon to be 36, remains a quality, if clearly declining player - he ranked fourth among shortstops in Fangraphs' Wins Above Replacement.
He's only got one year at $11 million left on his deal. The question is whether he would waive his 10-and-5 no-trade protection.
But far and away the most attractive trade candidate currently at Amaro's disposal is former All-Star and lefty ace Cole Hamels. Hamels could play a major role in the eventual direction the club takes toward a slow rebuilding or a return to contending.
"I think we're right in the sweet spot with Cole," Amaro told Lawrence. "Because we can go either way. We can't close off any discussion. At the same time, he'd be the perfect guy to build around as well. He has a great contract compared to what might be going on with the elite pitchers [in free agency]. And I don't know if there was a better pitcher in baseball [in the] second half of the year."
Hamels had a career-best 2.46 ERA in 30 starts this past season - a 1.91 ERA in 23 starts after June 1. He has the fourth best ERA in baseball, 3.00, over the past five years. He's owed at least $96 million over the next four years.
Somewhat surprisingly, the most popular name in trade discussions thus far hasn't been any of the major core of Hamels, Rollins, Papelbon or Chase Utley, according to Rosenthal. Instead, right fielder Marlon Byrd has caught the eye of many a rival GM.
"While Byrd is 37, he hit 25 home runs last season, more than any free agent outfielder but Nelson Cruz," writes Rosenthal. "He is under contract for just $8 million next season, but by making 463 plate appearances, he also can vest his $8 million option for 2016.
"Byrd batted .264/.312/.445 last season and rated as a plus defender in right, according to John Dewan's plus-minus ratings."
Meanwhile, one player - and contract - continues to hamstring the organization and make the prospect of getting younger and returning the roster to contender status nearly impossible.
First baseman Ryan Howard, who is still owed $60 million, with salaries of $25 million for each of the next two seasons, and turns 35 later this month, is a shadow of his former self. He hit .223 with a .310 OBP this past season, five years after knocking in 141 RBIs and hitting 45 homeruns during Philadelphia's last run to the World Series, according to Baseball-Reference.com.
Injuries coupled with rapid aging - he was almost 25 when he made his major league debut - have caused a severe dropoff in Howard's production. According to a report from Buster Olney of ESPN.com, Howard is no longer viewed as anything close to a high-end player by other organizations' talent evaluators.
"His lower half has quit on him," a longtime evaluator told Olney. "He just can't move. I think of him as a .240, .250 hitter. He's not a legitimate 40-homer guy anymore; he's a legitimate 20-homer guy."
"He used to be a very good left-center field hitter," the evaluator continued, "because he could wait on the fastball and drive the ball the other way and get results with that. But now, his legs have quit on him so much that he tries to pull the ball to generate power; his swing is all upper body.
"He's a DH. He really has to be peddled to the American League, to be a DH and an occasional first baseman. He's Adam Dunn, although Adam Dunn is probably a better defender at this point than he is."
The problem for Amaro seems to be that not only have many teams, like the Red Sox and Yankees, either filled their vacant DH spot or already possess plenty of in-house options with which to do so, but the market is saturated with DH types who won't cost nearly as much as Howard.
"Victor Martinez is the best available, followed by the likes of Nelson Cruz, Billy Butler, Mike Morse, Delmon Young, Kendrys Morales, Corey Hart and others," Olney reports. "The Braves are said to be open to moving Evan Gattis, an excellent (and cheap) DH candidate with far less mileage than someone like Howard."
The Phillies, were they successful in their attempts to move Howard, would, no doubt, be forced to eat a large portion of his salary - something they'd probably be fairly happy to do. Not only is Howard's contract outsized for his current level of production, his presence blocks the way for youngster Darin Ruf to gain seasoning.
The Phillies, and Amaro, do have some decent young players around which to build. Ruf, along with Cody Asche, Maikel Franco, Domonic Brown and Freddy Galvis are all on the list of players the team plans to let develop in 2015.
The team also caught a break recently when veteran pitcher A.J. Burnett declined his $12.75 million player option, saving their payroll from bloating even farther.
And word has emerged from Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com that they are one of many teams interested in acquiring the services of Cuban slugger Yasmany Tomas.
"The Phillies are said by people in the know to be "all over" Tomas, the outfielder/third baseman who has been holding private workouts in the Dominican Republic in recent days after a widely-attended September showcase that is said to have drawn all 30 MLB teams," Heyman reports. "The right-handed Tomas turns 24 next week and is drawing raves, not only from his agent Jay Alou, who predicts a 2015 Rookie of the Year award for him -- though a price tag believed to be $100 million, or close to it, may give some teams pause."
But a dearth of young talent in the organization otherwise coupled with the behemoth mistake that is Ryan Howard's contract has left the team floundering and staring a long road to victory in the face. Answers are not quick to come and forward movement may only arrive should rival GMs choose to take one - or several - pieces off Amaro's hands.
What Amaro, Gillick and the Phillies may have to accept as they attempt to progress into a new era of Philadelphia baseball is that the return on any deal almost certainly won't come close to what they've been seeking or have been hoping for, and that adding a player of Tomas' caliber won't be possible until another shoe - or shoes - drop.
Sometimes, addition by subtraction is the best course of action.
