The reason why you pay for health insurance is because you could get hit by a bus tomorrow. Morbid, I know. But it's true. You just never know what is going to happen.
The same holds true for fantasy football. You could review all the stats and trends that you want, prepare endlessly for potential outcomes, and you still will be shocked every week at a few of the results. I don't know about you guys, but I sure didn't expect Ben Roethlisberger, Matt Asiata and Allen Hurns to be three of the top ten fantasy scorers last week. Did you? What I'm saying is that fantasy football is an inexact science. I do my best to take the information I'm given and make an informed prediction. Sometimes I'll be right and sometimes I'll be wrong. You just have to do your best.
Now that I've sufficiently talked myself out of a job, here are a few players worth starting this week and a few to avoid:
Worth It:
QB: Russell Wilson
Sink or swim time for the Seattle Seahawks. They're 5-3, but have looked incredibly shaky over the last few weeks. Wilson has failed to top 14 fantasy points in each of his last two outings (especially concerning given they were against the soft defenses of the Panthers and Raiders). The Arizona Cardinals are starting to run away with the NFC West. This game is crucial for the rest of Seattle's season. They'll either rise to the occasion or fall flat. I think the 'Hawks will fly. Teams have scored over 32 points per game against the Giants in the last three weeks. The G-Men have allowed nine passing touchdowns in that span, and will be without cornerback Prince Amukamara. Plus, they'll be traveling to Seattle, where Wilson is averaging right around 30 rushing yards per game, a nice stat booster. I'll be starting him in two leagues this week.
RB: Giovani Bernard and Jeremy Hill
Both backs have a very solid shot at seeing the endzone against the Cleveland Browns this weekend. Obviously, Bernard's hip injury leaves him as a question mark. But he's the lead guy when healthy, and Hill filled in more than capably last week (24 carries for 154 yards and two scores). The Browns are allowing 110 rushing yards a game over their last four and the Bengals love to run it in when they get close. I'm not saying that Cincinnati is more afraid of Andy Dalton dropping back to pass in the red zone than Chicago Bulls fans are of every Derrick Rose layup, but the Bengals have run it on 19 of their 22 plays within five yards of the goal line. Bernard and Hill both have five rushing touchdowns on the year. Seems like a good bet to me.
WR: Alshon Jeffery
Jeffery has been remarkably consistent this season. The third-year receiver has reached the double digit fantasy mark in five of eight games. He hasn't had any explosive outputs that swing the outcome of a matchup, but his dependability is nice. Green Bay ranks ninth in opposing passing yards this season, but have started to show cracks over the last month. They've allowed increasingly more receiving yards over their last four games and given up seven receptions for touchdowns during that span. The Bears may be more dysfunctional than a reality TV show right now, but Jeffery is a safe top-10 play.
TE: Larry Donnell
Unless your last name is Graham, Thomas, Olsen or Gronkowski, then you're probably a middling fantasy tight end. It's just too hard to find consistent production at the TE spot, outside of the four or five big names. Kind of like being a Baldwin or Kardashian, all of the non-major people are interchangeable. But I think Donnell should have a decent game against a Seahawks' defense that has given up 10 touchdowns in eight games to opposing tight ends.
Avoid:
QB: Andy Dalton
He's on pace for just 16 passing touchdowns. As mentioned before, the Bengals love to run it in when they approach the goal line. I can't exactly blame them. Dalton reminds me of that one character in every war movie who just loses his mind whenever things get serious. He's serviceable, but you can't trust him in critical situations. Plus, Dalton had a passer rating of just 60.45 and four total turnovers in two games against the Browns last year. Definitely the guy who goes mental when you need him most.
RB: Reggie Bush
Bush has only one double digit game this season, and that was back in Week 3. I know he's been dealing with injuries, but Theo Riddick has looked solid while filling in, and could steal some snaps from Bush going forward. Riddick is a passing-down running back that has been healthier and more effective recently. It's like the T-900 being replaced by the more capable and better built T-1000 in "The Terminator" movies. I wouldn't trust Bush as anything more than a flex option in non-PPR leagues.
WR: Martavis Bryant
Five touchdowns in three games is amazing. It's also completely unsustainable. Bryant has averaged a measly 28 snaps per game since making his NFL debut in Week 7. That's not a lot of playing time or opportunity for a player whose fantasy value is completely reliant on scores. I know the Steelers are playing the Jets and their Swiss cheese secondary this week, but Pittsburgh is not going to average six touchdowns through the air every game. Bryant may be talented, but until he's on the field for a significant amount of snaps, I'm not relying on him for consistent production.
TE: Jared Cook
Cook was on this list last week, and he's on it again this week. Did you know that Cook is tied for the NFL lead in targets without a touchdown (48)? Did you know that the St. Louis Rams' opponents this week, the Arizona Cardinals, have not allowed a touchdown to an opposing tight end in four games? Did you also know that using rhetorical questions in your columns is a major sign of a lazy writer? Cook has been held 50 yards receiving in all but three games this season. He's essentially a zero-upside play.
