Columbus Blue Jackets defenseman Jack Johnson may possibly be the single most overrated player in the entirety of the National Hockey League, for a reason which goes well beyond athleticism or skill, according to Sam Page of Sports Illustrated.
Instead, Page argues, Johnson falls short of elite time and again because he lacks one crucial element to his game that all the great ones have possessed - spatial contextual awareness.
"Hockey is played at high speeds, with multiple people, all of whom have unique traits, moving in different directions. The ability to quickly recognize which players are where, what they can do, and where they will be, is the fundamental skill of the modern game. This was the great gift of Wayne Gretzky, the hallmark of the legendary Red Army teams, the thing that separates Crosby from a handful of equally-skilled and physically more impressive peers."
The 27-year-old Johnson was originally drafted third overall by the Carolina Hurricanes in 2005, a pedigree that set expectations for his career fairly high. Adding weight to those expectations were the two players who went ahead of him - none other than Sidney Crosby and Bobby Ryan.
Being selected in the same draft as those two players, let alone directly after those two players, is bound to leave any player with a certain stigma of hope and supposition for career achievement.
Unfortunately for Johnson, he is not, as of yet, nine seasons into his career, nearly the same caliber of player as either Crosby, arguably the best player in the league, or Ryan, an extremely talented young forward who just signed a seven-year, $50.75 million contract extension with the Ottawa Senators.
Adding yet another layer to Johnson's infamy is his involvement in what has come to be deemed by some as one of the most lopsided trades in recent league history. In February 2012, the Los Angeles Kings sent Johnson and a 2013 first-round draft pick to the Columbus Blue Jackets for center Jeff Carter.
Carter and the Kings would go on to win the Stanley Cup that season. Johnson and the Blue Jackets have yet to find their way out of a continual cycle of mediocrity.
Johnson, according to the numbers, is one of the worst defensive players in the league. Yes, he posted 42 points last season. Yes, he skates well and has a big reputation.
But defensively, it's almost as if he doesn't try. His positioning is good. His attempts to affect the play are bad to poor. And Page thinks he knows exactly why this is.
"Would you believe me if I told you that Johnson is no Gretzky? I watched the Blue Jackets' 4-2 loss to the Hurricanes on Wednesday. I really wanted to like Johnson. He pinches in the offensive zone with good speed. He can shoot. He isn't afraid to play the man on defense. But too many times I found myself yelling, "What are you doing?!" Johnson does all the right things, but at all the wrong times."
Johnson's fundamental flaw is one you can't really measure, but is borne out by statistics nonetheless.
Advanced statistics, like Corsi (measures total shot attempts) and Fenwick (total shot attempts minus blocked shots), point very clearly to Johnson's deficiencies, and played a direct role in his having been left off Team USA's roster for the Sochi Olympics, according to SBNation's Fear The Fin blog, despite having been a key member of the team that won Silver in Vancouver in 2010 and acting as the captain for the IIHF World Championships three years later.
Dean Lombardi, Los Angeles Kings general manager and president, had this to say about Johnson's development in 2010, when he was still a member of the organization.
"Jack was a thoroughbred out there," Lombardi said according to Gann Matsuda of Frozen Royalty. "But he was all over the place. He was awful as a hockey player. As an athlete, you're going, wow! Look at the way he skates, shoots, he can pass. But he had no idea where he was going."
Lombardi's comments highlight the question that has constantly and consistently dogged Johnson since he was still just an NHL prospect - could he ever learn the game in a way that truly took advantage of his prodigious athleticism and physical skill?
Lombardi pointed to Johnson's time in college at Michigan, where he bounced around to a number of positions, as a reason for his slowed development as a defenseman at the professional level.
"At times, he was playing forward at Michigan," Lombardi elaborated. "You had no idea what position he was playing. But he had always been the star and he always got his numbers. Then he turns pro and for the first time, we're telling him 'whoa, just make the first pass and learn to play in your own end.' How about making a read in your own end about the right guy to pick up? He was awful."
Not exactly a ringing endorsement, especially from a guy who first traded for, then gave up on Johnson.
As Page noted, defensemen tend to develop at a slower pace than forwards. Players like Zdeno Chara often bounce around to a number of organizations and face moments of failure before finding ultimate success.
The problem for Johnson and dilemma for the Blue Jackets' organization may be that, at 27 years old and nine years into his career, he already is all that he'll ever be - a talented, if extremely flawed and ultimately lower-tier, player.
