The Dallas Cowboys will miss the NFL playoffs. That's right, I said it. The Cowboys may be 7-3, but I don't see them sneaking into the playoffs, and I'll give you three reasons why.
1. Schedule
The Cowboys have six games left on their schedule after this week's bye. This includes two games against the NFC East leaders, the Philadelphia Eagles (7-2), and the AFC South leaders, the Indianapolis Colts (6-3). Right now, the one game gap between the Cowboys and Eagles is greater than you would think at first glance. Philly's point differential (+81) is nearly double that of Dallas' (+49), and the Eagles' remaining schedule features seven games against teams with a combined record of 27-28. That's not exactly the most daunting of schedules, even with Mark Sanchez as their quarterback. If the Cowboys make the playoffs, it will be as a wild card, but that poses problems of its own.
2. Wild Card Competition
Only six teams from each conference make the playoffs, four division winners and two wild cards. The Arizona Cardinals, Detroit Lions, New Orleans Saints and Eagles are all current favorites to win their respective divisions in the NFC. That means that the Cowboys are competing with the Green Bay Packers and Seattle Seahawks for the two remaining wild cards.
The Packers' remaining opponents have a combined winning percentage of .539; that's not exactly a cake walk, but it's also not an immovable obstacle for a red-hot Aaron Rodgers. Green Bay currently has a 74.3 percent chance of making the playoffs.
The Seahawks still have six division games to go, which means they could improve their playoff seeding down the stretch. They have a 67.9 percent chance of making the post-season. It's hard for me to count out the reigning Super Bowl champions, who still have a dominant running game and a top 10 defense.
Speaking of defense, the Cowboys rank just 13th in DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average). In the likely event that DeMarco Murray wears down (a league high 280 touches so far this season), Dallas' mediocre defense will not help them tread water. The Cowboys' total playoff odds are just 58.1 percent.
3. Recent History
The latter months of the NFL season have not been kind to the Cowboys. Romo is just 14-19 in the month of December for his career. Romo's completion percentage in December is lower than any other month. Last season, Dallas was 7-5 heading into December. They finished just 1-3.
The Cowboys do not finish strong. Three straight seasons of .500 football support that. Romo's recent back injury further clouds their playoff hopes. Cold weather and a potentially limited Romo will require Dallas to continue to pound the football. Few running backs hold up against the type of workload Murray has had this season. Any slip in performance from Murray would doom Dallas to a playoff-less season; the Cowboys are average to below-average in every other phase of the game.
