The reason you watch the NFL playoffs is because anything can happen. No. 1 seeds get bounced like a squib kick. Underdogs defeat unbeaten juggernauts. Oh-My-God moments are plentiful when the calendar flips to January.
With that line of thought in mind, here are three bold predictions for the post-season:
1. The Dallas Cowboys Will Miss the Playoffs
I wrote about this a few weeks ago, but it's worth rehashing.
The Cowboys are tied with the Philadelphia Eagles for the NFC East right now at 8-3. But Philly closes out the season with winnable games against the Washington Redskins and New York Giants. Dallas, meanwhile, has to play the Eagles twice and the AFC South leading Indianapolis Colts. Even with Mark Sanchez at the helm, the Eagles have a better point differential than the Cowboys and are a more complete team (have you seen that special teams unit?!?!). They'll win the division, which will force Dallas to compete with some combination of the Detroit Lions, Green Bay Packers, Seattle Seahawks and San Francisco 49ers for Wild Card spots.
Aaron Rodgers is playing at an MVP level, and the Packers have a manageable schedule down the stretch. Detroit's offense may be sputtering, but they still have the NFL's top defense and an easy slate of games that includes the Chicago Bears (twice), Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Minnesota Vikings. The Seahawks only have division games left, meaning there is an excellent chance of them improving their playoff seeding behind a top-10 defense and rushing attack. And the 49ers just got Aldon Smith back and are peaking at the right time.
Tony Romo is just 14-19 in the month of December for his career, and has his lowest completion percentage in that span. Bottom line: the schedule, abundance of competition and recent history are all working against Dallas.
2. The Miami Dolphins Will Make the Playoffs
Talk about Wild Card competition, the Dolphins have to compete with the Kansas City Chiefs, San Diego Chargers and the entire AFC North just to sneak into the post-season. But they'll do it.
The Dolphins have been gift wrapped two games against the lowly Jets and one against Minnesota in their final five. The New England Patriots are likely to rest starters in their Week 15 matchup with the division already sewn up. Miami can conceivably finish with a conference record of 9-4, which would likely put them ahead of the competition.
Miami's point differential of +66 is more reminiscent of a seven or eight win team; a few lucky bounces this weekend and they would have beaten the Denver Broncos. This team just seems to be cresting at the perfect moment. The Dolphins boast the fifth best total defense in the NFL, and are rushing the ball better than ever thanks to the zone read. Ryan Tannehill is on pace to finish with a career high in touchdown passes, completion percentage and rushing yards.
Expect the Dolphins to make their first playoff appearance since 2008.
3. The San Francisco 49ers Will Play in Their Fourth Consecutive NFC Championship Game
The 49ers are surrendering less than 12 points a game since Aldon Smith returned from suspension. San Fran ranks second in opposing passing yards per game (207) and seventh in opposing rushing yards (92).
The most important thing a Wild Card has to do in the playoffs is win on the road. The 49ers have the league's second best road record at 4-2. Say all you want about Jim Harbaugh, but it's clear that he has this team prepared to play in the most difficult situations. San Fran is 5-3 in the playoffs under him.
The Harbaugh era in SF still has a little juice left in it, and they'll prove that this post-season.
