It all comes down to this, folks. Last week of the fantasy regular season. Some of you are holding onto a playoff berth with dear life. Others are trying desperately to sneak in. I won't waste your time with my usual hilarity and wittiness. No, now is the time to get serious(ish).
Here are a few players worth starting this week and some to avoid:
Worth It:
QB: Tony Romo
Woah, back-to-back appearances in this spot for Romo. Never thought I'd do that. Life is just full of surprises, aint it? Since 2006, Romo is 16-1 at home in the month of November. He's thrown for at least two touchdowns in seven of his past eight games. The Cowboys are playing a Philadelphia Eagles defense that is surrendering an average of 339 passing yards and 2.3 touchdowns through the air over its last three games. Enjoy your Thanksgiving turkey with a side of fantasy goodness from Romo.
RB: Andre Ellington
No, Drew Stanton hasn't exactly helped Ellington's fantasy value. Yes, Ellington has had a few sub-par weeks lately. Maybe, I'll stop writing in this idiotic form. Ellington's fantasy value this year has come from his immense workload. He's had double digit carries in every game this season and is averaging nearly six targets per week. You think that is going to change against an Atlanta Falcons team that is ranked 24th against the run and have allowed 15 rushing touchdowns (most in the league) this year? Me neither.
WR: Jordan Matthews
Rookie receivers have been killing the game this season. Matthews is no exception: four touchdowns over the last month and an average of 90.5 yards per game in that span. In fact, Matthews ranks 13th among fantasy receivers in per-game production since Week 7. And while Mark Sanchez appears dead set on feeding the other team the ball - three multi-pick games since taking over - he also feeds Matthews. The first-year wideout has seen a healthy 7.5 targets a game with Sanchez under center. Dallas, meanwhile, is allowing 180.6 receiving yards per game to opposing WRs since Week 7. Let this Eagle fly.
TE: Jimmy Graham
Stop the presses (even though I work at a website and not a newspaper), someone thinks it's a good idea to start Jimmy Graham! Even if Graham lost a foot to Jaws, I'd still start him. Playing a Pittsburgh Steelers defense that has allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends also helps.
Avoid:
QB: Russell Wilson
The Seahawks don't have a single receiver who can consistently create space. Wilson's fantasy value this season has largely come from being forced to run as a result (he's on pace for 937 rushing yards). You know who is really good at stopping the run? The San Francisco 49ers. You know who is really good at stopping the pass? The San Francisco 49ers. You know who just got Aldon Smith back is allowing fewer than 12 points to opposing teams since his return? The San Francisco 49ers.
RB: Matt Forte
You're starting him regardless, I get that. The dude does have eight rushing touchdowns in his last seven games. Last time I checked, that was pretty good. But the Detroit Lions defense is also pretty good. They may have let the Patriots drop 34 points on them last week, but the Patriots the Bears are not (obviously). On the season, the Lions are only allowing 3.2 yards per carry to opposing running backs and have surrendered an NFL low 778 rushing yards total. Detroit's defensive line hasn't just lived in opposing backfields, it's set up colonies with complex and sturdy infrastructure. Forte owners should temper their expectations.
WR: Vincent Jackson
I don't care about his good game last week. V-Jax has burned me too many times this season. Did you know the last time he scored a touchdown most of us were finishing up back-to-school shopping? Jackson is racking up targets like nobody's business, but his reception rate of 46.6 percent is pitiful. I'd rather work on Thanksgiving than trust Jackson against a Cincinnati Bengals defense that has allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points to opposing wideouts since Week 8.
TE: Owen Daniels
Box office success for any movie starring Taylor Kitsch, eating an appropriate amount of food today instead of gorging on deliciousness, and tight end fantasy points against the San Diego Chargers. Sorry, just listing things you shouldn't count on. The Chargers have allowed only two touchdowns to opposing TEs all year. Daniels hasn't seen the endzone since Week 7. I don't expect that to change on Sunday.
