New research suggests polar bears could be in serious trouble by the end of the 21st century.
Projected shifts in Arctic ice cover, and possibly even a lengthening of ice-free periods, could have an extraordinary impact on polar bear populations by the end of the century, PLOS reported.
"Sea ice across the Arctic is declining and altering physical characteristics of marine ecosystems. Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) have been identified as vulnerable to changes in sea ice conditions," the researcher wrote in their study abstract.
To make their findings researchers from the University of Alberta used sea ice projections for the Canadian Arctic Archipelago from 2006 to 2100 as well as metrics developed from polar bear energetics modeling. This allowed the team to assess future polar bear habitat loss and how the animals will thrive under those conditions.
"We predict that nearly one-tenth of the world's polar bear habitat, as much as one-quarter of their global population, may undergo significant habitat loss under business-as-usual climate projections," said lead researchers Stephen Hamilton from University of Alberta.
Shifts away from multiyear ice to annual ice cover and lengthening of ice-free periods have the potential to be critical for polar bears before the turn of the century. Predictions have suggested the Archipelago could undergo between two and five months of ice-free conditions in regions where these types of condition currently do not exist at all.
"Under business-as-usual climate projections, polar bears may face starvation and reproductive failure across the entire Archipelago by the year 2100," the researchers concluded in the abstract.
The findings were published in a recent edition of the open-access journal PLOS ONE. Funding was provided by WWF (Canada), ArcticNet, the Canadian Association of Zoos and Aquariums, Canadian Wildlife Federation, Environment Canada, Hauser Bears, Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada, Office of Naval Research grant (N000141110977), Pittsburgh Zoo, Polar Continental Shelf Project, Polar Bears International, and Quark Expeditions.
