The Los Angeles Dodgers and their new front office shook the baseball world on Wednesday and Thursday when they traded Matt Kemp, Dee Gordon, Dan Haren and others while acquiring Jimmy Rollins, Howie Kendrick and a load of prospects. What's their plan?
We're going to go through each trade in order and evaluate each player as well as the overall scope of the transaction. Check out our analysis below:
Los Angeles Dodgers trade two minor league players to be named to the Philadelphia Phillies for SS Jimmy Rollins
This was the first trade that began the snowball effect. Although nothing is clear at this point, it seems as if Los Angeles might be sending prospect pitcher Zach Eflin (who was acquired from San Diego for Matt Kemp) to Philadelphia. Either way, that's not the point. The Dodgers acquire Rollins, who is still a solid shortstop, for only the 2015 season. Rollins will earn $11 million and become a free agent in 2016, which is probably exactly what Andrew Friedman and Farhan Zaidi were looking for. Why?
Well, the Dodgers' top prospect, Corey Seager, should reach Triple-A in 2015, which means he could be ready for the 2016 season. The 20-year-old shortstop had an excellent 2014 campaign, during which he spent 118 games between advanced Class-A Rancho Cucamonga and Double-A Chattanooga. He slashed an astonishing .349/.402/.602/1.004 with 89 runs scored, 20 home runs and 97 RBIs. Seager was then invited to participate in the Arizona Fall League and didn't disappoint. He batted .281/.354/.472/.825 with six runs scored, one home run and 14 RBIs in 23 games with the Glendale Desert Dogs. Just yesterday he was named to the Arizona Fall League's Top Prospects Team.
Although nothing is set in stone, it seems as if Los Angeles might be prepping for Seager's arrival by next season and still give themselves a solid fill in for 2015 with Rollins.
Los Angeles Dodgers trade 2B Dee Gordon, SP Dan Haren and INF Miguel Rojas to the Miami Marlins for pitcher Andrew Heaney, utility man Enrique (Kiké) Hernandez, catcher/second baseman Austin Barnes and pitcher Chris Hatcher
The Dodgers sold high on Gordon, who was coming off an All-Star season in his first full year in the big leagues (he's played four seasons but never exceeded 87 games). The Marlins were in need of a second baseman, so it wasn't anything out of the blue, but the pieces Los Angeles received are valuable in some way. Here's some analysis from Craig Calcaterra of NBC Sports' HardballTalk:
"Heaney, a strong pitching prospect. Kiké Hernandez, a 23 year-old who played every position except catcher and first base last season between Houston and Miami and posted a 107 OPS+ in the process. Barnes, a catcher who played at high-A and Double-A last season and who has hit everywhere he's played. And finally Chris Hatcher, who is at least a serviceable reliever."
For those of you that like statistics:
Andrew Heaney, SP: The left-hander owns a 19-11 record in his minor league career with a 2.77 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. He has a great strikeout-to-walk ratio (3.85 : 1) and has surrendered only 15 home runs in 259 2/3 innings pitched.
Kiké Hernandez, Utility Player: On top of playing literally almost every single position, Hernandez slashed .248/.321/.421/.742 with 13 runs scored, three home runs and 14 RBIs in his first 42 major league games. He also doesn't strike out a whole lot (12% K rate) in 512 minor league games.
Austin Barnes, 2B/C: According to FanGraphs, Barnes was the "jewel of the trade." The former ninth round pick slashed .304/.398/.472 with 80 runs scored, 13 home runs, 57 RBIs and 11 stolen bases in 122 games between advanced Class-A Jupiter and Double-A Jacksonville. FanGraphs projects Barnes to have a higher WAR (1.8) than Gordon (1.0) and a higher wRC+ (92) than Gordon (83).
Chris Hatcher, RP: Nothing too special here, except for the fact he's a reliever, which is what the Dodgers need most. The 29-year-old maintained a 3.38 ERA and 1.20 WHIP while adding 60 strikeouts in 56 innings pitched this past season.
Another big aspect of the trade was getting rid of Gordon at his peak value, especially since he was under club control for another four years. It's nothing against Gordon, but the Dodgers' front office apparently prefers those with a good on-base percentage and the speedster had a career .314 OBP. Additionally, we know how Friedman loves his prospects, and the Dodgers have 23-year-old second baseman/shortstop/outfielder Darnell Sweeney making his way up through the minors. The switch-hitter slashed .288/.387/.463/.850 with 88 runs scored, 14 home runs, 57 RBIs and 15 stolen bases (although was caught stealing 16 times) in 132 games with Double-A Chattanooga. He played 81 games at second base in 2014.
*If Dan Haren opts to retire, which he previously mentioned if he were traded outside of Los Angeles, the Marlins will receive $10 million (Haren's salary) from the Dodgers. If he decides to pitch, the Dodgers will relieve themselves of a $10 million No. 4 starter.
Los Angeles Dodgers trade pitcher Andrew Heaney to the Los Angeles Angels for 2B Howie Kendrick
The Dodgers essentially didn't lose anything and they'll get Kendrick, who is one of the best hitting second baseman in the league, for the 2015 season. He'll earn $9.5 million before becoming a free agent, which further points to a prospect taking over the second base position in 2016.
Los Angeles Dodgers trade outfielder Matt Kemp, catcher Tim Federowicz and $32 million to the San Diego Padres for catcher Yasmani Grandal, starting pitcher Joe Wieland and minor league pitcher Zach Eflin
Kemp has five years and $107 million remaining on his contract and he was perhaps the only costly outfielder the Dodgers had a chance of getting rid of. Carl Crawford and Andre Ethier also carry hefty annual salaries, but have little trade value due to their performances in recent years. Getting rid of Kemp helped the Dodgers do a few things: relieve themselves of $75 million and one of the worst defensive outfielders while making room for highly touted outfield prospect Joc Pederson. The salary relief helped them sign starting pitcher Brandon McCarthy to a four-year, $48 million deal.
Although Kemp has gained superstar status after his phenomenal 2011 campaign, his wins above replacement (WAR) over the past three seasons are perhaps worth around a player that costs $10 million per season, according to Rob Neyer of FOX Sports. Based on statistics provided by FanGraphs, over the past three seasons Kemp has had WARs of 3.2 in 2012, -0.4 in 2013 and 1.8 in 2014. That's 4.6 wins in three seasons, and he's projected just 2.1 in 2015. This is a much different story than the 8.4 he posted in 2011 and the 5.0 in 2009, but based on his age and injury history, it's definitely evident his production is on the decline.
The acquisitions of Grandal, Wieland and Eflin are crucial as well. As mentioned before, it looks as if Eflin might be heading to Philadelphia, so again, the Dodgers essentially gave up nothing of their own for Jimmy Rollins. Wieland, a right-handed starter, is turning 25 years old and will compete for the No. 5 spot in the rotation along with a handful of others. Despite overcoming recent elbow injuries, Wieland has a 35-22 record with a 3.27 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in 95 games in the minors (86 starts). And lastly, Grandal will take over behind the plate and fill a much needed void. The switch-hitter is only 26 years old and is a good defensive catcher (.991 career fielding percentage). In 216 career professional games, Grandal has a stat line of .245/.350/.412 with 24 home runs and 94 RBIs. He's also under club control through the 2018 season.
So after an active 24 hours from the Dodgers, we can at least see what the front office is trying to do. And who knows what else is left to come, because there's still time left to try and trade Crawford and Ethier. Now that Friedman and Zaidi are with a big market team and not operating under the low payrolls of the Tampa Bay Rays and Oakland Athletics, we may see a front office that further revolutionizes the game of baseball.
