A report released by the United Nations suggested that Earth’s population may reach 11 billion by 2100.
U.N used the improved fertility forecasting methods developed by the University of Washington's Center for Statistics and Social Sciences which they used in analyzing Africa’s fertility rate. It was previously believed that Africa’s fertility rate fell during the 1990s.
Adrian Raftery, lead author of the study and professor of statistics and sociology in the University of Washington, and his colleagues studied the life expectancy of the population factoring in medicine and technology. The original projection of the U.N was that the world population may reach 9.6 billion by 2050 but the research team revisited the numbers and saw variance which led to inaccuracy. U.N’s report projected 7 to 17 billion which is too broad.
After re-computation and adjustments made factoring in medical and technology, the research team was able to narrow the range and closed it to 9 to 10 billion in 2100.
Raftery said in a press release that their analysis highlighted the need for the government and other organizations to help Africa have a better family planning education. Existing policies should be revisited and women should be educated to slow down the increasing population of the country. Africa is currently at 1.1 billion and may increase up to four times by 2100 ending at 4.2 billion.
The situation will be aggravated in years to come because aside from Africa facing rapid population growth, the food shortage is also increasing wherein the country has been dependent on food imports for the past 30 years. 17 percent of their food supply was imported according to World Watch. With the rapid growth population of the country, the government had not expressed their social and economic plans yet. The population they have already exceeded the capacity and issues are emerging such as water shortage, vegetation, pregnancy and abortion, and AIDS.
The situation that Africa has is not just their concern because it may also happen to other countries if we don’t take action now. According to Census, the U.S population as of July 2012 is at 313,933,954 ranking third on the most populated country in the world after China and India. The world population is already 7 billion as of March 2012.
