A new computer model predicts the cities that are most likely to suffer from power outages when hurricanes strike them in the future.
Researchers at John Hopkins University created a computer model to predict the cities that are most vulnerable to power outages when storms hit their areas, especially those near the Atlantic and Gulf coasts. The team integrated hurricane data and global temperatures for the simulation of 27 cities in the United States.
The data allowed the research team to determine the possible problems related to hurricanes and the damage that it could bring to the power source.
"We provide insight into how power systems along the Gulf and Atlantic coasts may be affected by climate changes, including which areas should be most concerned and which ones are unlikely to see substantial change," Seth Guikema, an associate professor in the university's Department of Geography and Environmental Engineering, said in a press release. "If I'm mayor of Miami, we know about hurricanes, we know about outages and our system has been adapted for it. But if I'm mayor of Philadelphia, I might say, 'Whoa; we need to be doing more about this."
The computer model showed that the top cities to experience the biggest power outages in the future are New York, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania; Jacksonville, Florida; Virginia Beach, Virginia and Hartford, Connecticut. Memphis, Tennessee; Dallas; Pittsburgh; Atlanta; and Buffalo, New York, on the other hand, are the least likely to have to worry about this problem in the future.
The computer model estimated a 30 percent increase in the number of customers to live in the dark based on a 100-year storm scenario in Miami and New Orleans. Those residing in Baltimore and Washington, D.C., on the other hand, have a 20 percent increase.
Researchers believe that their findings can help cities prepare for problems associated with climate change.
"The range of results demonstrates the sensitivity of the U.S. power system to changes in storm behavior," Guikema said. "Infrastructure providers and emergency managers need to plan for hurricanes in a long-term manner and that planning have to take climate change into account."
This study was published in the Dec. 17 issue of Climatic Change.
