There's an old saying that goes, "Luck is the residue of design."
Most of you are about to enter your league's championship game. I'm here to tell you that you didn't get there by luck. Believe it or not, fantasy football takes more than that. No, you're here in the final matchup because you drafted well, traded effectively and made shrewd free agent moves. People don't realize the amount of time that goes into a competitive fantasy league. Back channeling like Frank Underwood to scour out trade options, pouring over articles and projections to find the perfect starting lineup. For those who take it seriously, fantasy football can be a fun but time-consuming commitment. So pat yourselves on the back for making it this far; it's already an impressive accomplishment to outlast all but one team in your league.
Of course, that doesn't mean you're going to take it easy now. This is the Big Game and you want to win. I want you to win too. So here to help are a few players I think are worth starting and some to avoid.
Worth It:
QB: Matthew Stafford
Stafford is the Charlie Kelly character from "It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia" because he's been such a wild card this season. He's scored 19 or more points five times, but has failed to top 15 points eight times (numbers!). I think it'll be more of the former this week against the Chicago Bears. To put it mildly, the Bears play defense more like baby cubs. They've allowed the second-most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season, including eight passing touchdowns over the last three weeks. Stafford is averaging 37 pass attempts per game and the Lions desperately need this win to stay in step with the Green Bay Packers for the NFC North crown. Honestly, I think it's going to be carnage at Soldier Field this weekend.
RB: Fred Jackson
I love me some F-Jax. He went to a D-III school, went undrafted, worked his way over from the CFL and is now 33 years old, yet still a productive NFL running back. This guy is the man! He's also posted solid numbers over the last month: 312 total yards with one touchdown and 19 receptions (at least 70 total yards or a touchdown in every game during that span). Jackson is a consistent flex option in standard leagues and a good option in PPR leagues. Helping matters is the fact that the Buffalo Bills are playing the Oakland Raiders this weekend. The Raiders have surrendered the second-most fantasy points to opposing running backs in large part because of the 19 rushing touchdowns they've given up. I know C.J. Spiller might return this week, but even when he was healthy this season, Buffalo always preferred Jackson.
WR: Mike Evans
I mean, you were starting him anyway. But still, the rookie wide receiver has been incredibly impressive this season. Despite a dud last week against the Panthers (relatively salvaged by a garbage time touchdown) Evans has been red hot since Week 6. This week, the Bucs play the Packers, which leads me to believe a blowout is on the horizon. That means pass, pass, and more pass for Tampa Bay. Blocking out Aaron Rodgers' "Thor-like" performance this season (seriously, can we please check if this guy has any Asgardian blood in him?), Green Bay is weak on defense. They've allowed the eighth most fantasy points to wide receivers this season, including eight receiving touchdowns over the last month. I feel good about Evans this week.
TE: Dwayne Allen
The tight end position is easily the thinnest and most fickle in all of fantasy football this year. Outside of the top three guys (Gronkowski, Graham, Thomas), it's basically been a crapshoot. But if you've come this far, maybe you're willing to come a little further (shout out to anyone who caught that "Shawshank Redemption" reference right there). Allen caught a touchdown last week in his second game back from injury, and the Dallas Cowboys have allowed ten touchdowns to opposing tight ends on the season. In fact, Dallas is surrendering the second-most fantasy points to TEs this year and have allowed back-to-back games of 84 yards to the position. If you don't have one of the top guys, Allen is a good bet to produce this week.
Avoid:
QB: Peyton Manning
Look, I'm not saying bench Manning. You ride or die with your studs. But I am saying that he hasn't looked like the Peyton of old over the last five weeks. He's averaging just 14.2 fantasy points in that span, fewer than Teddy Bridgewater's 14.8. A matchup against the Cincinnati Bengals' 11th ranked pass defense isn't exactly a cake walk either. I think Denver has shifted to a run heavy approach over the last month or so to conserve Manning for the playoffs. They have 148 rushing attempts to just 111 pass attempts over their last four games (all wins). So start Manning, but hope to receive production from throughout your lineup.
RB: Justin Forsett
Forsett has been a marvel this year. He currently ranks fifth in the NFL in rushing with 1,128 yards. But he's also coming off his worst game of the season in which he failed to crack 50 yards rushing or find the endzone. The Houston Texans haven't allowed a 100-yard rusher or a touchdown on the ground in the last three weeks. Yes, Forsett has been very solid this season. But I have him outside the top ten this week.
WR: Alshon Jeffery
Jeffery has had a good season overall, but he's going to have a tough go of it this weekend. For starters, the Chicago Bears offense is a mess. Jeffery salvaged a poor outing on Monday with some garbage-time success. But the Lions have allowed the eighth-fewest fantasy points to opposing wide receivers this year. I know Jeffery burned them for two scores back in Week 13, but without Brandon Marshall around to help divert some of the coverage his way, Jeffery will be blanketed all night.
TE: Jordan Reed
If you've been consistently starting Jordan Reed this season then I have no idea what you're doing with your life. The Redskins offense is the football equivalent of the movie "The Lone Ranger." Just an absolute train wreck through and through. Reed has eclipsed double digit points in just one game this season. One. In the five games he's shared with quarterback Robert Griffin III, Reed has seen just 10 total targets. There is no upside here, just the continual factory of sadness that is the Washington Redskins.
