C.J. Spiller is a difficult player to accurately peg.
In 2012, Spiller looked like the best dual-threat running back in the game. He averaged an insane 6.0 yards per carry and 10.7 yards per pass, finishing with 1,703 total yards and eight touchdowns. Those are Matt Forte-like numbers.
But in the two years since Doug Marrone took over as head coach, Spiller has found himself being buried in the box score. The former first-round pick has accounted for just 1,524 yards and three touchdowns in the Marrone era. His numbers are declining across the board. He averaged 4.6 yards per carry and 5.6 yards per catch last year to 3.9 and 6.8 this season.
Spiller has also struggled to stay healthy, missing eight games over the last two seasons. His minus-four yards on four carries in his first game back from injury last weekend didn't exactly help his case.
The odds of Spiller continuing his career in Buffalo are slim. In fact, they're at only 30 percent, according to Jay Skurski of the Buffalo News.
"The writing was on the wall for Spiller the moment the Bills traded for running back Bryce Brown in May, and nothing that has happened this season makes it any more likely the team's 2010 first-round pick would return for a sixth season," Skurski wrote.
"Spiller does have a player option he can exercise that would pay him slightly less than $3 million for 2015, but exercising that is highly unlikely. Even in a depressed market for running backs, he can probably find more guaranteed money elsewhere.
"[GM Doug] Whaley has said the Bills would like to retain Spiller, but if they do, it will clearly be on their terms."
Some critics point to Marrone and offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett using Spiller incorrectly in the offense. Whatever the case may be, ESPN's Mike Clay suggests you count on someone else in fantasy.
"C.J. Spiller handled 17 snaps in his return from a collarbone injury on Sunday. Calling him rusty would be a major overstatement, as he lost four yards on four carries, managed 14 yards on four receptions and lost a fumble. Fred Jackson (42 snaps) remained the clear feature back, but Boobie Dixon (five snaps) and Bryce Brown (inactive) were non-factors. Spiller should not be in starting lineups against the Patriots' outstanding run defense this week. New England last allowed a rushing score in Week 9."
