Israel's army should prepare to discontinue its mandatory draft and instead introduce an all-volunteer model, according to an internal document from the Israel Defense Forces' behavioral science center obtained by Haaretz.
"The IDF must plan for this scenario based on similar scenarios regarding other armies," wrote Yuval Benziman, an IDF researcher who specializes in the relationship between the IDF and Israeli society, according to Haaretz. "Even if in the Israeli case the changes will be different from those in other countries, it's difficult to imagine that the outcomes that have been observed in these nations can be completely avoided."
The report notes that only six European nations have a mandatory draft, with most compulsory draft militaries located in Asia or Africa.
Benziman said that in many ways, Israel and the IDF are already in the process of switching from a draft to an alternative model, but that he believes because a perceived threat is still dominant in Israel, the "chances of changing to a voluntary military model in the near future [are] very slim," adding. He added: "but the processes currently underway in Israel are similar to scenarios faced by other armies throughout the world, that eventually led to abolishing the mandatory draft."
Col. Roni Tamir, the head of the behavioral science center, agreed that there were "signs indicating" that Israel could begin shifting towards a voluntary service, and said that the IDF should seek to learn from the experience of other Western armies, reported Haaretz.
However, Benziman said that the IDF is unlikely to advocate for such change on its own. Instead, because of the public's high level of involvement in the process, the transition will likely occur gradually, informally and from outside of the establishment, propelled by groups expressing "public discourse against the mandatory draft," as has been done in other countries.
"This way, the phase of transitioning from the compulsory and voluntary model take shape through various local changes and processes, unrelated to a comprehensive change in the military model," said Benziman.
One of the main contributing factors in any move towards voluntary military service is whether or not a perceived threat is dominate, which it is in Israel, according to Benziman.
Other significant factors coming into play include a large gap between those who are required to serve and the number of people who actually end up serving, which creates a "feeling of injustice and inequality."
Benziman lists additional factors, including the deterioration of the army's status in society, a decrease in willingness to serve, and public pressure to devote funds to other areas such as welfare, education and infrastructure.
"From here, it's not impossible that discussions on the need for switching to a voluntary draft will get louder in the coming years, and ultimately lead to comprehensive change," Benziman concludes. "The IDF must plan for this scenario based on similar scenarios regarding other militaries. Even if in the Israeli case the changes are different than the changes in nations throughout the world, it's hard to imagine that the results can be completely sidelined. The need to prepare for the transitional period, a drastic change in manpower, new perceptions on the use of force, the need to deal with a fluctuating number of draftees based on factors out of the army's control, as well as difficulties in estimating budget cuts - the IDF could face all of these things, and thus it must prepare itself in advance."
