Although the market for Max Scherzer is quiet and pretty much undefined, signs keep pointing to him returning to the Detroit Tigers. Team officials have said some things regarding the right-hander, and the latest statement could be the most revealing.
According to Tony Paul of The Detroit News, a Tigers' official said they "have to have him," in referring to Scherzer, because there are many questions regarding David Price's future with the team, the health of Anibal Sanchez, and the ability of Justin Verlander to be an elite pitcher again. This comes a few days after another team official said the organization was happy with their rotation and isn't pursuing any starters.
However, Paul also noted the team official said the Tigers aren't going to bid against themselves, so it's likely they wait for the market to develop for the right-hander. Scherzer and his agent, Scott Boras, are seeking a $200 million contract, which is apparently excessive for even the big market clubs. The Tigers went out and acquired a couple of more cost-effective starters in Alfredo Simon and Shane Greene this offseason and general manager Dave Dombrowski said there hadn't been any recent conversations with Scherzer or his representation. If the Tigers had him in their plans, Dombrowski cannot be happy this news leaked.
On Wednesday night both Ken Rosenthal and Jon Morosi of FOX Sports said the St. Louis Cardinals were looking for a top-tier starting pitcher, which included exploring a trade for Price. The left-hander is slated to become a free agent after 2015 and the Tigers have not entered discussions with him regarding a long-term contract. Price also hasn't expressed a willingness to remain in Detroit, so the team could very well be exploring options to get value for him before he hits the market. If the Cardinals are a legitimate suitor it would help the Tigers get something in return for Price, shed his expected $18 million salary for 2015 (he's currently arbitration-eligible), and re-sign Scherzer (assuming the asking price goes down).
Although Paul believes Scherzer will eventually be back with the team, he also thinks "if a team floors him, he's gone." Could that team potentially be the Houston Astros? Anthony Castrovince of Sports on Earth writes, "While my best guess remains that Scherzer goes back to Detroit, the Astros also loom as the rare team that has both the need and the long-term economic flexibility to make a Scherzer deal happen." Based on the way they've set themselves up for the future, there's certainly a possibility.
Their starting rotation consists of Scott Feldman, Dallas Keuchel, Collin McHugh, Brett Oberholtzer and Brad Peacock. Clearly lacking an ace, they can afford to [overpay] Scherzer for the sake of thrusting themselves into contention within the next few seasons. Their payroll is at about $39 million right now, but they owe about $21 million to those who are arbitration-eligible, according to Baseball Reference, which still leaves them at a reasonable number. Castrovince noted Scherzer had a WAR of 6.7 in 2013 and 6.0 in 2014, which he believes (in an optimistic world) could help bring the Astros to 87 or 88 wins. Houston finished 70-92 in 2014, but improved their bullpen this offseason, with the additions of Luke Gregerson and Pat Neshek, after blowing an MLB-worst 26 saves.
Subtract a few of those blown saves and add in a few wins on Scherzer's behalf, and Houston could have an outside chance of nabbing a wild-card spot. Of course, all speculation, but it's fun to think outside the box.
