The NFL draft is all about evaluating on-field performances and projecting future success. Of course, off-field matters have to be taken into consideration as well. That's why grading top prospects can become such a tricky task. How much stock do you place in either category?
The top two quarterback prospects (and likely first players off the board) are Oregon's Marcus Mariota and Florida State's Jameis Winston. Both are Heisman Trophy winning quarterbacks. But Mariota is considered a high-character individual while Winston's baggage has some teams questioning his maturity. As a result, most early mock drafts have Mariota being selected before Winston.
But is it possible that Mariota is the riskier prospect of the two? ESPN's drafter expert Todd McShay seems to think it's possible.
"The more I study Mariota's Oregon tape, the harder it is for me to find throws that translate to the NFL game," McShay wrote. "When I went back and charted his passes from the FSU game, screens, dump-offs and scrambles were more common than the type of downfield throws required by NFL offenses."
Mariota works primarily out of a spread system in Oregon and relies on his mobility quote often. Winston, for all of his off-field concerns, operates in a pro-style offense and is comfortable as a pocket passer.
"In the NFL, receivers aren't open the way they are in college," McShay wrote. "In college, an open receiver is often either uncovered or clear of a defender by at least a few yards. In the NFL, "open" more often than not means the quarterback anticipated the receiver's move and got the ball out in time to the proper spot, as the receiver broke free....When Mariota has been asked to make those kinds of throws at Oregon, he hasn't been quite as accurate."
If an organization feels confident that they can create the proper environment for Winston to stay out of trouble, they may view him as the superior quarterback. It was rumored that had he been able to enter the draft last season, he still would have been the No. 1 pick.
"If there weren't off-field concerns with Winston, he would be the clear-cut No. 1 prospect and No. 1 overall pick in this draft. He still might be, depending on how QB-needy teams picking at the top of the draft (notably Tampa Bay at No. 1 and Tennessee at No. 2) ultimately feel about him from a character and psychological standpoint, but that's the big risk associated with him right now. From a talent and production standpoint, Winston is elite.
"However, I think that for all the reasons I mentioned above related to Mariota's lack of experience and success making NFL-style throws, teams could end up viewing Mariota as a bigger risk than Winston."
