Scientists of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research have found that global warming could cause an increase in the daily variability of Indian monsoon rainfall.
Constant and sudden weather changes are not new to scientists. However, researchers are interested in knowing the extent of the weather changes and if the affected regions will be able to cope with the climate variations.
In one such study, scientists of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research found that global warming could cause an increase in the variability of Indian monsoon rainfall.
Indian monsoons have already been deemed by scientists as very complex and daily ups and downs in the amount of rainfall a region receives are invariable. However, scientists worry that the increase in this daily variation due to global warming can cause serious damage to property and life.
Anders Levermann, one of the study's authors and co-chair of PIK's research domain Sustainable Solutions says the findings of this study could help the country adopt safety measures and have disaster management policies ready.
He also reveals that the impact could be extensive even if seasonal mean precipitation remain unchanged
"Focusing on the average is not always useful. If rainfall comes in a spell and is followed by a drought, this can be devastating even if the average is normal," he said in a press release. This requires the right kind of adaptation measures that account for this variability - such as intelligent insurance schemes, for example."
Authors of this study reveal that if global warming is not checked, this increase in daily variability of Indian monsoon rainfall could range anywhere between 13 to 50 percent. However, if global warming is checked to the internationally approved threshold of 2 degrees Celsius, monsoon variability could be brought down to between 8 and 24 percent.
For the study researchers used ten models that provided the most realistic monsoon patterns showing the lower rates of change and all of them predicted an increase in the daily variability of Indian monsoon rainfall.
The study was posted online in the journal Geophysical Research Letters.
