It was reported last week the Boston Red Sox, St. Louis Cardinals, San Diego Padres and Texas Rangers were the four teams in discussions with the Philadelphia Phillies about left-hander Cole Hamels. Another four clubs can be added to that list as of this week.
According to ESPN's Jim Bowden, the Los Angeles Dodgers, Chicago Cubs, Houston Astros and Toronto Blue Jays have "stayed in touch" with the Phillies throughout the offseason about Hamels as well. However, he notes the Red Sox and Padres are considered the front-runners because of their plentiful farm systems and the need of an ace in their starting rotation.
The Dodgers and Cubs also have a deep farm system that can land Hamels in a trade, but they already have Clayton Kershaw and Jon Lester atop their rotations, so they may not be inclined to give up a lot for another left-handed ace. Nonetheless, the fact that they've been in touch with the Phillies and can easily take on the remaining four years and $100 million left on Hamels' contract should worry all of those involved in the pursuit. But let's not rule out the Houston Astros, who are a dark horse considering they need a left-hander and an ace in their starting rotation and have immense financial flexibility with a payroll under $60 million as of right now. They too have the young ammo to trade for Hamels.
While the St. Louis Cardinals, Texas Rangers and Toronto Blue Jays apparently remain in the discussion, they look to be the least likely to land the left-hander. First off, the Cardinals don't seem to have the depth in their farm system to make such a costly sacrifice, since they don't have one prospect in the MLB's Top 50. Also, they've traded away young starters Joe Kelly, Shelby Miller and Tyrell Jenkins since July and would be hard-pressed to surrender names such as Carlos Martinez, Marco Gonzales, Randal Grichuk, Stephen Piscotty and Peter Bourjos for the sake of the team's future. I wouldn't rule them out, but they're certainly not one of the top candidates.
As for the Rangers, prior to landing starter Yovani Gallardo from the Milwaukee Brewers on Monday, it was reported Texas had "in-depth talks" with the Phillies about a Hamels trade, but money was apparently what held back an agreement. The Rangers already have $131 committed to the 2015 payroll and Hamels' salary for next season is $23.5 million, which would be a significant increase. The details of the money situation were unknown, but it's likely this was a big reason in the decision making.
Similarly, the Blue Jays have $115 million committed to 2015 and that number is expected to go over $120 million once the arbitration settlements are made. It was reported last week that they have a renewed interest in starter James Shields, but they have only $6 million to $7 million to spend for the remainder of the offseason barring a late approval for a payroll increase by the team's ownership. Considering Hamels is owed almost $24 million next season, it's all but said Toronto is out of such a deal.
As for the likely four teams, the Padre seem the most likely to acquire Hamels because the left-hander is from San Diego and said he would prefer trades to the West Coast and Midwest for the sake of being near his family. Bowden says San Diego "would be willing to include" top prospect Austin Hedges since they just traded for another catcher in Derek Norris, who they have under club control for another four seasons. Their other top prospects - pitcher Matt Wisler and outfielder Hunter Renfroe - should be enough to get Philly on board, it's just a matter of whether or not the Padres want to give up such valuable young talent.
Boston used to look like the top destination for Hamels, but recent reports have noted they're unwilling to include prospects Mookie Betts and/or Blake Swihart in a package deal, which can't be helping their case in the discussions. However, as spring training gets closer and Boston's rotation still lacks an ace, they might change their mind on Betts or Swihart.
In one of the most unpredictable offseasons in recent memory, we're keeping every possibility on the table.
