The Washington Nationals introduced Max Scherzer today after the two sides agreed to a seven-year, $210 million contract. Although the right-hander is all smiles about his deal, it has significantly affected how the Cincinnati Reds can do business with their top starter, and they can't be happy.
With Cincinnati there's an obvious issue, which is money. Scherzer's $210 million will now set a new bar for the top starters who are set to become free agents after the 2015 season. Yesterday we compared Scherzer's best three seasons to those of Clayton Kershaw, Justin Verlander and Felix Hernandez, because they all signed mega contracts worth at least $175 million over the past couple of years. The Reds now face a pressing issue as their ace, Johnny Cueto, will hit free agency after 2015.
Unless Cueto gets injured badly or has an uncharacteristically awful season, it's almost a foregone conclusions the Reds won't be able to afford him - and even if both of those things happen they probably still won't. If we look at Scherzer's three best seasons, the right-hander was 55-15 with a 3.24 ERA and added a Cy Young Award, which managed to get him a $200 million contract. Here are Cueto's three best seasons where he made at least 30 starts:
51-25 with a 2.83 ERA in 98 starts (from 2010, 2012 and 2014 since he was injured for parts of 2011 and 2013)
And here are his career numbers vs. Scherzer's
85-57 with a 3.27 ERA in 194 starts vs. 91-50 with a 3.58 ERA in 207 games (198 starts)
Additionally, Cueto finished second in the Cy Young voting in 2014 - only behind Clayton Kershaw - during a tumultuous year for the Reds that was characterized by injuries and a dearth of offensive production (they finished 28th in runs scored and 29th in both batting average and on-base percentage). During only one of Cueto's seasons did the Reds have a top-ranked offense, and that was in 2010 when they were 4th in runs scored. On the other hand, Scherzer enjoyed the 2nd ranked offense in terms of runs scored over the past two seasons, which, coincidentally, were his two best campaigns (he went 39-8 with a 3.02 ERA in 55 starts).
As a result, it's almost guaranteed some team will show Cueto the money once the season ends, and the Reds are unlikely to add another $100 million contract to their books, as they were dealing with payroll issues this offseason. Joey Votto ($225 million), Homer Baily ($105 million) and Brandon Phillips ($98 million) are all under contract for at least another three seasons and Jay Bruce ($51 million) has two left. In 2016, these four players will account for $63.5 million and then the team must deal with arbitration settlements for Aroldis Chapman, Todd Frazier and Devin Mesoraco.
Hal McCoy of the Dayton Daily News talks about how the Scherzer deal impacts the Reds:
"That set the bar for Johnny Cueto, a bar the Reds probably can't reach with a vaulting pole. So here is what is going to happen. The Reds won't be able to sign Cueto (his deadline is the end of spring training). If the Reds aren't in the chase for a playoff spot they probably will trade him at the July 31 trade deadline to a contender who will either sign him or he will become a free agent after the 2015 season."
Look for Cueto's tenure with the Reds to come to an end likely by the trade deadline.
