The St. Louis Cardinals have been reportedly toying with the idea of adding another elite pitcher to put atop their starting rotation. Is the pursuit of Cole Hamels their most likely option?
A few weeks ago it was reported that the Cardinals were "exploring trades" for left-handers Cole Hamels and David Price and were also entertaining the possibility of signing Max Scherzer. Well, with Scherzer now with the Washington Nationals and Price now open to the idea of signing an extension with the Detroit Tigers, it looks like Hamels is the team's last remaining option to pursue this offseason.
Philadelphia Phillies general manager Ruben Amaro said last week he believes Hamels will be with the team in 2015, but he also said the organization is keeping their eyes and ears open (in terms of trades) regarding every player on their roster. With Hamels being their best trade piece to land the most value, it's likely he's still part of the conversation because the Phillies are currently rebuilding.
According to Bernie Miklasz of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, such a trade would make sense for the Cardinals, especially financially.
"Based on the current cost of proven pitching, there's nothing scary about Hamels' contract. It's reasonable as these things go," he writes. "... Elbow ligaments can snap, and shoulders can become unhinged. But in terms of risk, the potential liability on Hamels is limited. His employer has to worry about the next four seasons. Not six, seven, or eight seasons."
Miklasz makes this point because the Cardinals' farm system isn't deep, which means they likely would have to, according to past reports, assume all of Hamels' salary over the next four years ($100 million), or five years (either $114 million or $118 million) depending on whether his team option is picked up ($20 million) or his vesting option ($24 million) kicks in.
"In media circles it's been speculated that the Phillies would seek a lesser return if the trading partner is willing to assume all of Hamels' remaining contract," Miklasz adds. "But if an interested team wants Philly to kick in money to help defray the cost of Hamels' contract, then Amaro would demand more in the trade."
The Cardinals' projected payroll for 2015 is about $121 million, according to Baseball Reference, but for 2016 they have a number of arbitration-eligible players such as Jon Jay, Trevor Rosenthal, Matt Adams and Peter Bourjos (who are due a raise) as well as impending free agents Jason Heyward, Randy Choate and Matt Belisle. Their payroll for that year is already projected to be around $118 million.
FOX Sports' Ken Rosenthal and Jon Morosi have detailed what it would take for St. Louis to land Hamels in an article earlier this month:
"To secure Hamels, the Cardinals likely would need to part with starters [Carlos] Martinez or [Marco] Gonzales as well as an outfielder such as Randal Grichuk or Stephen Piscotty (the Phillies have long coveted Peter Bourjos as well, sources say). Such a price could be prohibitive," they write. "In the past six months, the Cardinals have traded pitchers Joe Kelly, Shelby Miller and Tyrell Jenkins, depleting their stable of young arms. What's more, the player whom St. Louis acquired to replace the late Oscar Taveras, right fielder Jason Heyward, is entering his free-agent year."
Last week we noted that the Phillies were a little bit clearer in their demands for Hamels. Throughout the offseason it was said to be three top prospects, after a number of executives spoke with Amaro. One source said a few days ago the team was seeking "one prospect who could make a swift impact, and others for the future." Well, based on the names mentioned above, it's likely Martinez, Gonzales and Grichuk can contribute immediately while Piscotty and others would be for the future.
The pieces are there if the Phillies want them, and the Cardinals shouldn't have much of an issue taking on the rest of Hamels' contract. Oh yeah, and Hamels said he would prefer trades to the West Coast or Midwest because his family is from San Diego and his wife's family is from St. Louis.
