Before Winter Storm Juno hit the northeast forecasters predicted that the storm was going to be so huge that it would break records in New York City. However, the storm ended up leaving only a few inches in the Big Apple and instead dumped more than two feet in surrounding areas.
This miscalculation in the forecasters left many New Yorkers with the same question - how do weather forecasts go so wrong?
New Jersey-based meteorologist Gary Szatkowaski took to Twitter to apologize for the faulty predictions before the storm.
My deepest apologies to many key decision makers and so many members of the general public.
— Gary Szatkowski (@GarySzatkowski) January 27, 2015
You made a lot of tough decisions expecting us to get it right, and we didn't. Once again, I'm sorry. — Gary Szatkowski (@GarySzatkowski) January 27, 2015
Though there are scientific calculations made to predict how the weather is going to hit, it's not always perfect.
"The science of forecasting storms, while continually improving, still can be subject to error, especially if we're on the edge of the heavy precipitation shield," the US National Weather Service said in a statement. "Efforts, including research, are already underway to more easily communicate that forecast uncertainty."
When the meteorologists were predicting the course of Juno, they knew there would be a pressure gradient, or "western wall of snow," where everything east would get hit hard and everything west would escape with relatively little snow, Greg Carbin, warning coordination meteorologist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), told NBC News.
This storm was particularly difficult to predict where that "wall of snow" was going to land because the gradient during this storm was very narrow (measuring only about 50 to 150 miles across).
"There is a limit to predictability when it comes to forecasting and it's always going to be there," Carbin told NBC News. "Human behavior behaves like that, the stock market behaves like that and weather behaves like that."
Come 2016, this accuracy may increase, as the two Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite system (GOES) satellites used for the bulk of the weather reports in the U.S. are planned to be replaced with two new GOES-R satellites. The new satellites will take images with higher resolution and will be able to sense parts of the electromagnetic spectrum that current satellites can't detect, reported NBC News.
During Juno some parts of Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New York and Rhode Island have seen more than a foot of snow. New York City saw about 7.8 inches of snow, while some areas on eastern Long Island saw more than 28 inches, reported The Weather Channel.
