In recent weeks the Toronto Blue Jays have been linked to starter James Shields and have spoken to the Philadelphia Phillies about acquiring closer Jonathan Papelbon. Signs keep pointing to a payroll increase being the only way either move can be achieved. Will ownership approve more spending?
Blue Jays' CEO Paul Beeston told Jeff Blair of Sportsnet that the 2015 payroll can increase "if it fits within what we want to do." One can only assume what they want to do is win a World Series based on their moves this offseason: the team signed catcher Russell Martin to a five-year, $82 million deal, traded infielder Brett Lawrie and three notable prospects for third baseman Josh Donaldson, and traded starter J.A. Happ for outfielder Michael Saunders.
Toronto has starters R.A. Dickey (2016 team option) and Mark Buehrle under contract for one more season and those two count $32 million against their payroll for the 2015 season. Additionally, Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion will become free agents after this season ends unless the team decides to pick up their team options for 2016 (they both account for $24 million of the payroll). With a potential total of $56 million comings off the books, would a payroll increase this season make the most sense for the Blue Jays in 2015?
By looking at the financials, the contract Shields may land is in the four- to five-year range from anywhere between $80 million and $125 million. As for Papelbon, he'll earn $13 million in 2015 and has a $13 million vesting option for 2016 if he finishes 48 games this upcoming season. Let's consider a best case scenario, where Shields settles for four years and less than $20 million per season and the Phillies cover $6 million of Papelbon's remaining $26 million. FOX Sports' Ken Rosenthal wrote earlier today that "a four-year deal probably is more realistic [for Shields], and at this point it would be a surprise if he received $20 million per year," and also mentioned the Phillies could pay $6 million of Papelbon's salary, likely to make him more attractive in a trade.
Say Shields lands a four-year, $70 million deal and the Blue Jays backload the deal (like they did with Russell Martin) to pay him a lot less in 2015 (between $5 million and $7 million) so they can avoid raising the payroll excessively. If the Phillies pay the $6 million toward Papelbon's vesting option, the Blue Jays can use that (once his option vests) toward his $13 million salary for 2015. In this perfect world, they'll be paying around $14 million for the two in 2015, which means ownership would only have to pony up a few extra million to thrust the team into contention with the addition of an elite starter and closer.
However, looking toward 2016, the team already has a projected $112 million payroll if they pick up all the team options, according to Baseball Reference. We'll assume they're going to pick up the options for Bautista and Encarnacion, especially if this upcoming season is a success, so that'll be $24 million. At this point it's a toss-up if they'll pick up Dickey's $12 million option since he hasn't been too special (28-26 with a 3.97 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in 68 starts over the past two seasons). Throw in Shields' $20 million-plus salary (because of the backloaded deal) as well as Papelbon's $13 million earnings, and we're looking at a new franchise record payroll.
If they don't pick up any of the team options, they'll be sitting at $75 million, but it's hard to believe they are going to break up their core entirely after making such big moves this offseason.
So perhaps the issue isn't really 2015. It looks to be 2016, when the team has decisions to make with their top power hitters and starting rotation, while also dealing with arbitration-eligible names such as Josh Donaldson, Brett Cecil, Michael Saunders and Drew Hutchison. Does ownership want to provide a significant payroll increase for that season too?
