At 6:30 p.m. Super Bowl XLIX will kick off in Glendale, Arizona. The Seattle Seahawks and New England Patriots will bring two of the top offenses and defenses into tonight's matchup. What will be the determining factor for the victor?
Here at HNGN we think there will be one sole statistic that will result in the winner hoisting the Lombardi Trophy - Red Zone Efficiency. During the regular season Tom Brady had a quarterback rating of 97.6 in the red zone (ranked 12th) and Russell Wilson owned a 90.8 rating (ranked 18th), according to Sporting Charts.
Although they seem close in that category, Tom Brady and the Patriots were far more efficient in the red zone than Russell Wilson and the Seahawks. Both teams enter tonight with a 14-4 record, but their red zone numbers are much different, both on the offensive and defensive side of the ball.
Here are some statistics provided by TeamRankings.com:
NFL Team Red Zone Scoring Percentage (TD Only)
New England - 62.34% (5th in NFL)
Seattle - 51.52% (20th in NFL)
NFL Team Red Zone Scores per Game (TD Only)
New England - 2.7 (1st in NFL)
Seattle - 1.9 (10th in NFL)
NFL Team Opponent Red Zone Scoring Percentage (TD Only)
New England - 51.92% (11th in NFL)
Seattle - 56.82% (20th in NFL)
These numbers could perhaps explain why the Patriots averaged 30.4 points per game (1st in NFL) while the Seahawks averaged 25.2 (9th in NFL). Seattle still has one of the top offenses in terms of yards per game, but when facing tough defenses you could argue red zone efficiency is what gets the job done for the winning team in close games. The Green Bay Packers exemplified this argument in the NFC Championship Game just two weeks ago.
Aaron Rodgers and the Packers were only behind the Patriots with 29.7 points per game, while they averaged 2.2 red zone touchdowns per game (5th in NFL) for a red zone scoring percentage of 57.14% (11th in NFL). However, in their one game against Seattle two weeks ago, the Packers saw those red zone numbers drop to 1.0 red zone touchdowns per game thanks to a 33.33% rate. This included two trips to the Seattle one-yard line that resulted in field goals, which was ultimately the deciding factor in their 28-22 loss. We can place the blame on numerous late-game falters, but they would have never been in such a position if they scored a touchdown on one or both of those drives.
On the other hand, while Seattle's offense looked dead-to-rights for most of the game, they managed to score a touchdown on two of their three trips to the red zone (66.67%) and that was the number that helped propel them to their second straight Super Bowl.
In the other conference championship game, the Patriots cashed in on 100% of their red zone possessions, but perhaps that wasn't the best game to portray the statistic since they demolished the Indianapolis Colts 45-7. Let's rewind to the divisional round when the Pats hosted the Baltimore Ravens.
Joe Flacco and the Ravens made a total of five trips to the red zone and had an impressive touchdown rate of 80%. However, that one drive where they reached the New England seven-yard line with 10 minutes left in the fourth quarter, only to settle for a field goal, changed the entire course of the game. On the ensuing drive, the Patriots drove 74 yards down the field and scored a touchdown to take a 35-31 lead, which was eventually the final score. New England was three-for-three (100%) in their red zone attempts, and we argue that was indeed the difference-maker.
Forget about the commercials, the Katy Perry halftime show, and the chips and cola during tonight's game. Focus on each team's red zone efficiency and see who comes out the winner of Super Bowl XLIX.
