With about three weeks remaining until pitchers and catchers report to spring training, James Shields still has yet to sign with a team for the 2015 season. Is his most likely destination a club with a protected first round draft pick?
The fluctuating market for James Shields is perhaps the most silent it has been the entire offseason. At first it was believed the right-hander would land a deal in the five-year, $110 million range; then it was reported interested teams were hesitant to give him five years; then sources said Shields and his agent were looking for a five-year, $125 million deal; and finally it was said four years and $80 million looks to be the best contract he will land.
At this point it's largely unknown who is interested in the 33-year-old, similar to how the market for Max Scherzer played out before he signed with the Washington Nationals. But Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe makes a good point: "A Shields signing for four years would certainly make sense for teams with protected first-round draft picks, such as the Red Sox, Rangers, Astros, Rockies, Diamondbacks, Twins, and White Sox." If Shields signs with any other team that club would be forced to surrender their first round pick in June's Amateur Draft to the Kansas City Royals.
The Chicago Cubs and Philadelphia Phillies also have a top-10 protected pick, but the Cubs already spent $155 million on Jon Lester and the Phillies are currently rebuilding as they're continuing to work on trading their veterans. In addition to these teams, it's unlikely Shields signs with the Red Sox, Rangers and Diamondbacks because they've either publicly stated they aren't going after the right-hander or they're no longer pursuing big name free agents.
That leaves us with the Astros, Rockies, Twins and White Sox.
The Astros have a full rotation, but are in need of an ace to lead their young staff, but we know money can be an issue on Houston; the Rockies can use all the help they can get, but it's unknown if they would be willing to spend the money as well; the Twins already spent $55 million on Ervin Santana and have seven starters listed on their depth chart; and the White Sox spent fairly big this offseason with the acquisitions of David Roberston, Jeff Samardzija, Melky Cabrera, Adam LaRoche, Zach Duke and a few others.
However, the move might be best for the White Sox because Samardzija is only signed through 2015 (although he said he was open to extension talks) and the back end of their rotation is questionable with John Danks and Hector Noesi listed as the No. 4 and 5 starters. The White Sox can thrust themselves into contention if they signed Shields, and if Samardzija were to explore the free agent market after the season, they still have Chris Sale and Jose Quintana through at least the 2017 season.
Last week at the annual SoxFest fan convention, someone asked general manager Rick Hahn if the team would max out their spending if they were to sign Shields. Here's what Hahn had to say, via the Washington Post:
"Are we maxed out? Let's put it this way: I've gone back to that well a few times and I've gotten yeses each time. This is my 15th season with the club. Every time we've been in position to contend and missing a piece come June or July and we've gone with a sensible acquisition, the expenditure's been improved."
There's still a lot of time left if the White Sox were to pursue such a signing and their payroll is at $112.5 million, which gives them some room. Many would say there's room for an arm such as Shields, especially in an AL Central division where he has much experience pitching.
