Early on Sunday we ran an article that predicted the winner of Super Bowl XLIX would be the team that cashed in on touchdown scoring opportunities when in the red zone. Well, we were right.
It obviously wasn't a bold prediction, but red zone efficiency is a very telling statistic in a matchup between two teams with top defenses. And although it could have been argued this game would be won in the trenches, the red zone efficiency stat prevailed once again in the NFL postseason.
We noted in both the conference championship games that the winning team was more efficient in the red zone, even though in the divisional round two of the four winning teams were not. However, in the divisional round games, the two teams that won with a worse red zone efficiency either won the turnover battle or simply had more scoring drives. In our comparison for Super Bowl XLIX, we were assuming the game would be close because both teams were tremendously balanced, which would make the red zone efficiency stat more applicable.
As written yesterday, we figured New England would have an edge on Seattle because they had a better red zone scoring percentage (62.34% vs. 51.52%), more red zone scores per game (2.7 vs. 1.9) and a better opponent red zone scoring percentage (51.92% vs. 56.82%). Additionally, in the their two games prior to the Super Bowl, the Patriots scored on 90% of their trips to the red zone (9-for-10) versus Seattle's 50% (3-for-6).
In an unexpected turn of events, each defense displayed their flaws quite noticeably when they each surrendered nearly 400 yards of offense (New England allowed 396 yards and Seattle allowed 377 yards). Nonetheless, the winning team, as we predicted, was more efficient in the red zone. The Patriots cashed in on three of their four trips inside Seattle's 20-yard line while the Seahawks were three-for-five inside New England's 20-yard line.
Brady threw an interception in the end zone early on, but rebounded and threw touchdown passes to Brandon LaFell, Danny Amendola and Julian Edelman in the red zone. Russell Wilson and the Seahawks scored three touchdowns and a field goal on their first four red zone trips, but Wilson threw an interception on the Patriots' one-yard line with 25 seconds remaining and sealed the win for the opposition.
New England defeated Seattle 28-20 and there's no arguing that red zone efficiency was the key in this historic matchup. Coincidentally, it came down to the final red zone appearance on the final play of the 2014 NFL season.
