Earlier in the offseason it was noted the St. Louis Cardinals were exploring trades for David Price and Cole Hamels while also entertaining the idea of signing Max Scherzer. At this point in the offseason, is James Shields their best option?
The bottom line is that the Cardinals need some insurance in their starting rotation. Although their concerns aren't quite as drastic as the Yankees', there are issues surrounding the Cardinals' starting rotation. Adam Wainwright underwent minor elbow surgery in October and Michael Wacha missed much of 2014 with a stress reaction in his throwing shoulder. Jaime Garcia has also made only 36 starts over the past three seasons due to various injuries.
Can they rely on youngsters Marco Gonzales and Carlos Martinez to carry the load if something were to happen to their top arms? Despite their talent, that's a situation the Cardinals probably don't want to get themselves into.
According to Bob Nightengale of USA Today, the Cardinals have "shown interest" in Shields, which is the first such report linking St. Louis to the 33-year-old right-hander. It appears Shields might be their last hope because Scherzer has signed with the Washington Nationals, Price has said he was open to contract extension talks with the Detroit Tigers, and the demands put forth by general manager Ruben Amaro for Hamels likely proves too costly for a Cardinals farm system that isn't stacked with top prospects. St. Louis was also interested in pursuing Jon Lester, but the bidding war got too excessive for their liking.
Jon Morosi of FOX Sports reported on Tuesday night that Shields has "multiple offers in hand and is expected to sign before the end of the week," but it's unclear what teams have made offers and at what price. He also notes that a free-agent starting pitcher has never signed a deal worth more than $50 million after Feb. 1 of a given year, so if Shields' price tag has dropped that low, we can almost guarantee the Cardinals' involvement.
Similar to what we discussed about the Yankees earlier this morning, Shields would provide stability and continuity in a Cardinals' starting rotation that may not be healthy for the entire 2015 season. Additionally, his ability to go deep into games would take pressure off the bullpen. However, it's likely St. Louis will only make a deal if the price is right.
A.J. Cassavell of MLB.com and Sports on Earth wrote earlier today that he predicts Shields will land a five-year, $95 million deal. If that's his market right now then it's likely the Cardinals have backed off, but it's also a possibility the team finds his durability well worth the money if that's his current price.
"Since 2008, only Justin Verlander has made more starts than Shields," writes Cassavell. "Yes, Shields' body might break down because of the workload, but with no injury history to date, that might not come until his age-37 or -38 season. (A fair comparison would be Bronson Arroyo, who had never been on the DL until last year, his age-37 season.)"
We'll see where Shields lands at the end of this week.
