Have the Philadelphia Phillies waited too long to trade Cole Hamels? General manager Ruben Amaro has been holding out on making a deal to get exactly what he wants in return for the left-hander, but it's believed that opportunity has already passed.
"If some rival evaluators are right, the best possible deal the Phillies could've made for Cole Hamels probably went off the board months ago," writes ESPN's Buster Olney.
Philadelphia has been in trade talks with the Boston Red Sox regarding Hamels since before the trade deadline last season and they have failed to agree on a deal. The Chicago Cubs claimed the left-hander off waivers in the middle of August and the Phillies, again, couldn't make a deal in the mandated 48-hour window. Since then, clubs such as the St. Louis Cardinals, San Diego Padres, Texas Rangers, Los Angeles Dodgers and perhaps a few undocumented others entered discussions with the Phillies, and still nothing.
Hamels is the best trade piece Philadelphia has. The team has already dealt shortstop Jimmy Rollins and outfielder Marlon Byrd for prospects, while they continue to work on a deal with the Milwaukee Brewers for closer Jonathan Papelbon. But it's widely believed that trading Hamels as quickly as possible is more imperative given the possibility of injury (he battled shoulder tendinitis last offseason) and the off-chance he starts the 2015 season poorly. Both of those potential factors can decrease his trade value immensely.
His value has apparently already gone down because of Amaro's demands coupled with Hamels' potential maximum contract worth of $120 million over five years. The fact that Amaro has failed to work out a trade with the Red Sox, Padres, Dodgers, Rangers or Cubs is nothing short of baffling because they have a surplus of talented prospects that they'd likely be willing to offer if a) the Phillies weren't asking for too much and b) if they were willing to cover some of the money in his contract - talks fell apart with the Rangers earlier in the offseason because the two sides couldn't agree on an amount the Phillies would pay.
"Executives with other teams have been saying for about a year that they'd like an adjustment in the Phillies' stance, that they either want Philadelphia to reduce their asking price in prospects, or demonstrate a willingness to eat some of the salary owed to Hamels," added Olney. "That the Phillies haven't reached a deal for Hamels -- who was dangled as a possible trade piece before the winter meetings in 2013 -- suggests that a whole lot of rival executives see Philadelphia's position on Hamels as out of touch with the market realities."
It's all the more puzzling Hamels hasn't been dealt since he is coming off a season where he posed his best ERA (2.46) and gave up only 14 home runs (a career-low) in 204 2/3 innings. Shouldn't Amaro be selling high right now and get Hamels off his hands as the team enters a rebuilding period? Why continue to pay Hamels $25 million per year over the next four seasons after team president Pat Gillick said the Phillies are facing non-contention in the near future?
"It's brave talk for the Phillies to say they can just keep Hamels, but there's no real logical reason for them to do that," Olney concludes. "He was one of the best pitchers in baseball last year and they finished in last place with him fronting their rotation, and they are probably destined to be bad in 2015 and 2016; by the time they have enough player ammunition to climb the NL East again, Hamels will be in last months of his deal, in his mid-30s and probably in decline."
We'll see if Amaro has some late tricks up his sleeve with just a few weeks remaining before pitchers and catchers report to spring training.
