We are exactly two months away from Opening Day and the Cincinnati Reds still have yet to sign starting pitcher Johnny Cueto to a long-term deal. Once the season begins Cueto said he will no longer be willing to negotiate. Will he be with the Reds after this upcoming year?
In January it was reported there was "no recent progress" in extension talks between the two sides and it doesn't seem to have improved much since then. Cueto is slated to earn a big contract once he hits free agency if he has another solid season and isn't hampered by injuries. He finished runner up in the NL Cy Young voting behind Clayton Kershaw after posting a 20-9 record with a 2.25 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and 242 strikeouts in 34 starts (243 2/3 innings).
Given the current financial state surrounding the Reds, it's not too promising they'll be able to pay Cueto the money he wants to have him stick around. The deals for Max Scherzer (seven-year, $210 million contract) and Jon Lester (six-year, $155 million contract) have set a new, even more robust market for free-agent starting pitchers. Cueto will be part of that 2015-2016 class alongside David Price, Jordan Zimmermann, Jeff Samardzija, Yovani Gallardo, Doug Fister, Mat Latos, Rick Porcello and potentially Zack Greinke (if he opts out).
Even their general manager, Walt Jocketty, is approaching the process realistically.
"With Johnny, we'll never say 'never.' We are going to do everything we can to try and come up with some sort of plan to keep him," he said, via Mark Sheldon of MLB.com. "I'm not sure we'll be able to, because the numbers are obviously starting to skyrocket and it's very tough in our market to continue to retain guys at a high price like that. We'll continue to work on that and see where it comes out."
The Reds are kind of strapped financially, with $69 million already committed to the 2016 payroll without the salaries of Cueto, Mike Leake (earning $9.78 million in 2015), Aroldis Chapman (entering third year of arbitration), Todd Frazier (entering second year of arbitration) and Zack Cozart (entering first year of arbitration). Let's not forget about Marlon Byrd, who has an $8 million vesting option (if he makes 550 plate appearances).
Perhaps the Reds shouldn't have jumped the gun before the 2014 season when they signed starter Homer Bailey to a six-year, $105 million contract when his career numbers are just about average (58-50 with a 4.17 ERA, 1.31 WHIP and 829 strikeouts in 166 starts). At that point they already had given Joey Votto (10 years and $225 million), Brandon Phillips (10 years and $98 million) and Jay Bruce (six years and $51 million) fairly large contracts for the type of market they're in.
"If the Reds are still in the $120 million range in total player payroll, that makes it difficult to put together a competitive roster," writes John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer. "So as difficult as it is, the Reds may have to part with Cueto. As silly as that seems, it's the way you have to operate in modern baseball."
Unless they're in the playoff race in July, the Reds will likely work on trading Cueto if they don't have a deal for him before the season begins. They can at least get some value for the right-hander before he's gone for good.
