Although the Boston Red Sox have been in trade talks with the Philadelphia Phillies regarding Cole Hamels, they seem to have put that idea on hold for now and are sticking with the starting five they have. Are Clay Buchholz and Rick Porcello the key to their rotation's success?
With Buchholz and Porcello leading the way and Wade Miley, Justin Masterson and Joe Kelly behind them, the Red Sox clearly do not have an ace. Buccholz had a disappointing season in 2014 after posting an 8-11 record with a 5.34 ERA and 1.39 WHIP in 28 starts. Porcello had his best year as a starter with the Detroit Tigers last season and finished 15-13 with a 3.43 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in 32 games (31 starts).
These numbers aren't reflective of someone who would lead a rotation, but do they each have the potential put up great numbers?
"The Red Sox are dedicated to the idea that their emphasis on depth rather than a gem at the top is going to work well enough for them to be competitive in the wide-open American League East," writes Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald.
But beyond that, Buchholz and Porcello both have something to play for. Buchholz has team options on his contract for 2016 ($13 million) and 2017 ($13.5 million), so he's essentially trying to prove his worth to earn that $26.5 million. He's certainly capable of performing and he showed that during the 2010 season (17-7 with a 2.48 ERA and 1.20 WHIP in 28 starts) and for half of the 2013 season (12-1 with a 1.74 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 16 starts). However, if he has another shaky campaign, it's likely his option gets rejected and he earns considerably less. He battled injuries in 2011 and 2013, which may have contributed to a decline in play due to a lack of consistency in 2012 and 2014. If he stays healthy in 2015 it could be different because it will be the first time ever he would made at least 28 starts in back-to-back seasons.
Bill James' projections have Buchholz finishing 12-10 with a 3.58 ERA in 196 innings, also via Silverman.
As for Porcello, the 26-year-old is entering his prime and will become a free agent after 2015, which means he's pitching for a long-term deal. The former first round pick debuted at 20 years old and made 31 starts for the Tigers, registering a 14-9 record with a 3.96 ERA and 1.34 WHIP. His three seasons after that were nothing to write home about, but over the past two seasons he has compiled career milestones in wins (15), innings pitched (204 2/3), ERA (3.43), WHIP (1.23), strikeouts (142), home runs per nine innings (0.8) and WAR (4.0), among others.
"The Red Sox have their fingers crossed that Rick Porcello, their top pitching acquisition this offseason, reaches his considerable potential under their tutelage this spring," adds Silverman. "There are worse bets, that's for sure. Porcello, 26, is entering his peak as well as his final season before free agency. To think that he could morph into a dominant pitcher is not at all a pipe-dream, but it is hardly a sure thing."
But Bill James' projections, also provided by Silverman, don't have Porcello making that considerable leap (11-13 with a 4.00 ERA in 209 innings).
There is a possibility that Buchholz and Porcello perform at the level the Red Sox hope for, just like how the New York Yankees are counting on the health of Masahiro Tanaka, C.C. Sabathia, Michael Pineda and Ivan Nova. Both scenarios may turn out for the best, but they aren't great bets.
If Boston doesn't get off to the start they had hoped for, or if they don't like what they see in spring training, general manager Ben Cherington might be giving the Phillies another call to re-open discussions regarding a deal for Hamels.
