New computer model simulations suggest the Southwest and Central Plains are in for devastating droughts over the remainder of the 21st century.
The simulations were based on climate reconstructions from an unusually warm period that took place in the 12th and 13th centuries, the American Association for the Advancement of Science reported.
"I was honestly surprised at just how dry the future is likely to be," said Toby Ault, an assistant professor in the Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at Cornell University and co-author of the research, which appears in the inaugural issue of the journal Science Advances.
The findings suggest these future droughts would be even more severe than what was seen in the 12th and 13th centuries, a period that has been dubbed the "Medieval Climatic Anomaly." This period of drought is believed to have contributed to the fall of the Ancient Pueblos, who were a Native American civilization that lived in the American Southwest.
The researcher used drought records of the Medieval Period as has been documented in the growth rings of ancient trees, and compared the data to 17 different computer model projections of 21st century climate.
The findings revealed the possibility of "robust and consistent drying" characterized by reduced rainfall and warmer temperatures in almost all of the analyzed models.
"Understanding climates of the past provides a strong benchmark of natural variability, allowing us to better contextualize the magnitude of modern and future human-driven climate change, including contributions to extreme event such as droughts," said Benjamin Cook, lead author of the study and research scientist at NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies.
The techniques used in the study could help guide future water resource management and agricultural planning.
"I look at these future megadroughts like a slow moving natural disaster. We have to put megadroughts into the same category as other natural disasters that can be dealt with through risk management," Ault concluded.
