Denver Broncos tight end Julius Thomas is set to hit free agency next month and is apparently betting that he'll make at least eight figures. At least, that's the assumption one could make after it was reported yesterday that Thomas declined a contract offer that would pay him $8 million a season.
That may have been a mistake on Thomas' part, as Jason Fitzgerald of OverTheCap.com believes he is one of the most overvalued free agents on the market.
"Thomas has two big advantages as he enters free agency which have likely driven the perception about him," Fitzgerald wrote. "One is that he plays in a Denver offense that throws the ball often which helps pad stats for players on the team. The second is that he is a terrific red zone player and ends up on the highlight reels for many of the Broncos game reviews since he is often catching touchdown passes. That has helped him be selected to two Pro Bowls. Negatively Thomas is always an injury risk and has only played in 36 games over a four year period."
Fitzgerald dove into some advanced numbers and surfaced with a clear conclusion: Thomas is not worth the top dollars he is looking for. Why is that? Glad you asked.
Fitzgerald found that Thomas ranks just 19th among 39 players who have recorded at least 500 receiving yards over the last two years in percentage of team targets. Entering his fourth season, Thomas has garnered 14.1 percent of his team's targets the last two years. That is well below the 23.2 percent or 23.0 percent that top tight end performers Rob Gronkowski and Greg Olsen have accumulated, respectively.
Additionally, Thomas has accounted for just 15 percent of Denver's yardage when healthy, according to Fitzgerald. That falls well below the likes of Gronk (30.4 percent), Olsen, (27.8 percent), Travis Kelce (24.9 percent) and Jordan Cameron (22.9 percent).
Of course, there are extenuating circumstances to every situation. Denver had more options to spread the ball to than several of the teams the aforementioned tight ends play for. But Thomas was a fourth-round pick buried on the depth chart with just one career reception to his name before Peyton Manning showed up. Any team, such as the Green Bay Packers, considering breaking the bank for Thomas should possibly reconsider.
