Last week, fellow HNGN sports writer Jordan Webb and I discussed the winners and losers of the NBA trade deadline. In my losers section I put the Philadelphia 76ers. Here's what I had to say about the team's deadline dealings.
"I understand that Philly GM Sam Hinkie wants to build through the draft, and adding the Lakers' top-five protected first-rounder from Phoenix certainly has its appeal. But the draft's purpose is to produce talented players, which Michael Carter-Williams appears to be (shooting woes and all). Shipping him off for another picks just restarts the cycle, no? At some point, you need to stop hoarding assets and start building an actual team."
I still believe that, but I also want to better understand Philadelphia's thinking in this deal. Lucky for me, ESPN NBA Insider Kevin Pelton broke down Philly's motivation.
1. Pelton explains that Hinkie's philosophy is to swing for the fences. He's not content with a player who is merely good; he wants a player who could potentially be transcendent.
"In return for their young point guard, the Sixers got from the Phoenix Suns what was almost certainly the most valuable draft pick to change hands at the trade deadline: the Lakers' protected first-round pick."
While the NBA draft is the epitome of an inexact science, Hinkie must prefer to have multiple at-bats to increase his chances of hitting a homerun. In that sense, the deal is more understandable. How can you hit one out of the park if you're not even up at bat? Still, shipping off the reigning Rookie of the Year is a bit of a head scratcher for some.
2. Los Angeles' pick appears to have been too enticing of an asset to turn down. I'll let Pelton explain the intricacies of that one.
"This season, the Lakers will keep their pick if it lands in the top five, a likely scenario...Next year, the protection decreases, and the Lakers only keep their pick if they win one of the top three spots in the lottery. It's difficult to project how the 2015-2016 Lakers will fare when half of their roster remains unknown, but using players under contract, the typical production from this year's top-five pick and the expected return on the team's cap space, I estimate they could be expected to win 28 to 32 games.
"In that case, simulating the season 1,000 times yields the 76ers getting the pick nearly 80 percent of the time -- sometimes a top-five selection."
Hinkie clearly valued a high end draft pick and the potential it holds over the known production of Carter-Williams.
3. This last reason builds off the previous one: Hinkie puts more stock in marquee draft picks than anything else. He is looking for that franchise cornerstone and the top of the draft board is the best place to find him.
"Imagine the worst possible outcome for the Lakers' next few offseasons," Pelton wrote. "If they somehow have a top-three pick in both 2016 and 2017, come 2018 the Sixers own the Lakers' pick with no protection whatsoever. There's a nonzero possibility that Philadelphia could end up with the No. 1 overall selection thanks to this trade. For the 76ers' front office, that made it worth giving up a promising point guard."
So, there you have it. Hinkie moved a solid young player for the chance to draft a great young player. Is that the right strategy? Will the deal be worth it in the long-term?
We'll just have to wait to find out.
