Any Denver Broncos fan who bought a tight end's jersey this season may want to check the return policy. Denver's top three TEs - Julius Thomas, Virgil Green and Jacob Tamme - are all set to hit the open market when free agency opens next month. It would be a big surprise if the Broncos didn't try to re-sign at least one of them. But the team could also look to the draft should it opt for a younger and less expensive option.
"[Broncos chief John] Elway said this past week in Indy he considered tight end to be a position of strength in this draft," ESPN Broncos reporter Jeff Legwold wrote. "Julius Thomas is expected to sign elsewhere as his representatives seek a deal that would put Thomas among the league's highest-paid tight ends.
"Elway, however, made it a point to say he hoped the Broncos could bring Green back."
As Legwold noted, Thomas is seeking big bucks in free agency. With a slew of other unrestricted free agents coming off the books, will the Broncos really want to get into a potential bidding war with the Jacksonville Jaguars or Green Bay Packers - two teams that have been linked to Thomas - in free agency? Is Thomas even worth a mega deal? Jason Fitzgerald of Overthecap.com doesn't think so.
"Thomas has two big advantages as he enters free agency which have likely driven the perception about him," Fitzgerald wrote. "One is that he plays in a Denver offense that throws the ball often which helps pad stats for players on the team. The second is that he is a terrific red zone player and ends up on the highlight reels for many of the Broncos game reviews since he is often catching touchdowns passes. That has helped him be selected to two Pro Bowls. Negatively Thomas is always an injury risk and has only played in 36 games over a four year period."
Fitzgerald goes on to reveal that Thomas ranked just 19th in percentage of team targets and passing yardage during the last two seasons, putting him below the likes of tight ends such as Rob Gronkowski and Greg Olsen.
Aaron Schatz of Football Outsiders mirrors Fitzgerald's comments, noting Thomas' immense value in the redzone but also highlighting his weaknesses elsewhere.
"What's interesting about Julius Thomas is that the number that jumps out with him is his touchdown total: 12 last season on just 43 catches for 489 yards, and another 12 on 65 catches for 788 yards in 2013," Schatz wrote. "That's 22 percent of his catches the past two seasons that have gone for touchdowns. If you look league-wide at tight ends with at least 30 catches in a season, the only guy with even 16 percent of his catches going for TDs is the consensus No. 1 tight end in the NFL: Rob Gronkowski. What I'm getting at with all of this is that Julius' touchdown totals are unsustainable, and if you pay him based on his production, you're going to overpay him. Receiving yardage is actually a much more predictive stat for pass-catchers. None of this means he isn't a good player. It just means that his TD totals are much more likely a result of him playing in an explosive offense with Manning at QB and talented outside receivers to open up the seam than they are because he's an irreplaceable player. Put him in another offense, and he's not catching 12 touchdowns in just 13 games."
